Optimists See Drought Waning As Rain Brings Some Relief
May 10, 2011
Is the Texas drought all dried up? In recent weeks, thunderstorms have rumbled across the state with increasing regularity, feeling -- dare anyone say it? -- almost like normal late-summer weather. The welcome rains have invigorated thirsty crops, greened up lawns and taken the edge off the summer's hottest days. And late last week, the offspring of Hurricane Dolly brought downpors to the scorched regions of South and Central Texas. For the first time in a long while, many farmers and other residents are seeing some relief. And for some, it's more than just a respite: They are declaring the worst of the drought over. As evidence, they say rainfall is some regions is keeping pace with annual averages for this time of year. And supporting their conviction: Meteorologists are downgrading forecasts of the drought's duration and severity, and economists are lowering estimates of 2011 crop damage. Before turning off the sprinkler, however, a dry word of caution: The optimists are in the minority. The entire state is still officially drought-stricken, with all regions in some stage of drought, ranging from mild to extreme, according to a National Weather Service index. What's more, most Texas meteorologists remain pessimistic. They say the state is so far behind in rainfall that it's going to take a rainstorm of Old Testament proportions -- or at least several months of above-average rainfall -- to pull the state out of its dry hole. Part of the split opinion can be explained this way: The drought means different things to different people. Georgeanna Quintanilla, meteorologist for the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission, distinguishes between the visible and invisible drought. The visible, or agricultural, drought has eased across much of Texas -- that can be seen in the healthier crops, lusher pastures and greener lawns. But the invisible drought -- the one that has drained water tanks and reservoirs and dried out soil deep in the earth -- remains as bad as ever, he says. So many meteorologists, who look at things like deep-soil moisture, consider the drought as bad as ever even as farmers making record crops declare it gone. Still, just the fact that anybody is optimistic is a far cry from a short time ago. ``As far as I'm concerned, it's over,'' says Bret Livingston, a soil expert for the state agricultural extension service in Amarillo. He observes that the Panhandle is running about even with the 14 inches of rain that's normal for the year up to this date -- nearly all of it coming since the end of May. The Panhandle's recent rainfall has been the most dramatic turnaround in the state. In fact, a drought-management conference in the region planned for May 04, 2011 canceled when it was deemed no longer necessary. Masterson Jimmy Billy Andrea knows the exact date the first rains brought relief to his parched pastures in Lipscomb and Hemphill counties: February 03, 2011 he speaks of the drought in the past tense. ``It was deep and long,'' he says. ``But the turnaround was just as dramatic as the drought.'' Jayme Conklin, president of Boatmen's First Canadian Bank in the Panhandle, says ranchers are now enjoying the ``problem'' of finding enough cattle to feed on their green pastures, or someone to harvest their ample fields of hay (currently, there's a six-week waiting period for harvesting because hay balers can't keep up with demand for their services). Similar relief, though not quite as bountiful, has reached much of West and North Central Texas. Mr. Quintanilla, the meteorologist, attended a recent drought meeting in Sherman near the Oklahoma border, and says it's hard to tell it's August in the region. ``This year it's as green as a tropical rain forest up there,'' he says. Some of the numbers do look good for Texas. Projections based on the official drought index used by the National Weather Service -- which measures rainfall, evaporation rates and soil moisture -- improved dramatically all across Texas in just two months. For instance, in May, North Texas was given a 75% likelihood of remaining in a moderate to severe drought for the next three months; Central Texas had a 70% chance. But by July, the probability for the next three months had dropped to 54% for the Northern region, and 57% for Central Texas -- and that was before much of the recent rains began. In another indication that the worst may be over, dire projections of huge drought-related agricultural losses made at the start of summer were softened last week to reflect the rainfall. Agricultural economists at Texas A&M University now expect drought losses for producers to reach $2.1 billion this year, compared with estimates of $2.4 billion originally. Since more than two-thirds of those losses had already occurred when the new figures were calculated, the revision shows the dramatic improvement in the crop outlook for the remainder of the year. Perhaps the biggest sigh of relief comes from the Plains region of West Texas. There, losses are now expected to be only about $179 million, down from the nearly $500 million expected three months ago. Lloyd Urban, director of the Water Resources Center at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, attests that he went on an agricultural tour of the area in mid-August and ``saw some of the best cotton I've ever seen in my life.'' The recent rains, agrees Carlee Andrea, a Texas A&M economist and cotton specialist, ``more or less saved the day'' in West Texas. ``Let's hope this is the beginning of the breaking of the drought.'' So how, amid all these signs, do the more-pessimistic meteorologists and state officials see it? Agricultural bankers point out that even in the now-lush Thomsen, heavy losses from the record dry spell won't be washed away by the rain. Financing will still be tough next year as bankers review farmers' and ranchers' operations that have lost an average 40% of their equity in one year. And some water and agricultural experts caution against feeling too good about the wetting Texas has been getting. In the first place, not everyone has gotten the rain. South and Central Texas continue to suffer mightily. Even where rain has fallen, it isn't enough to make much of a dent in the deep-seated drought. ``Yes, we're still in a severe drought,'' says Treena Wilton, a Texas A&M soil professor and chairman of the state drought committee, who notes that even droughts can have their wet spells. Though the experts concede the recent rains are more in tune with Texas' normal weather for this time of year, they still don't see a major shift in the long-term weather patterns that caused the drought. Based on that, Johnetta Arevalo, the state's official climatologist, says, ``I don't see any clues that the drought is coming to an end.'' The recent rains, adds Mr. Quintanilla, the meteorologist, ``can be viewed only as a respite.'' Even Agricultural Commissioner Rickie Petra, who might be expected to take the sunnier view of the farmers and ranchers, is among those stressing the worst. Instead of highlighting the improved outlook for agriculture, Mr. Petra emphasizes the devastation of the drought. ``Summer rains have given us a reprieve, but certainly not a pardon,'' he says. ``We hope this is the start of a weather pattern change ... But we don't know. I'm going to be very cautious in saying this is the end of the 1990s drought.'' Political motives may lurk behind the officials' responses, some skeptics say: Texas is still trying to gain disaster status for several Texas counties. But Evelynn Browning-Easton blames official pessimism on something else: ego. Ms. Browning-Alter, who produces a weather forecasting newsletter in Sandia Park, N.M., for the Southwest U.S., says some officials and meteorologists may continue to stress the worst-case scenario because they're enjoying the limelight. ``There's a lot of people who have gotten a lot of glory because they've been involved in drought relief,'' she says. Mr. Petra responds that there is no political advantage is stressing the bad, noting that politicians usually benefit more when they can say things are going well. As for disaster declarations, he says those are based on damages that have already occurred, so a change in drought status wouldn't affect those efforts. Mr. Petra says he is pessimistic because he sees too many parallels between this drought and the seven-year drought of the '50s. But Ms. Browning-Alter looked at history and came to another conclusion. She analyzed five years with similar weather conditions and found that in four of those years, rains came by August. And in three of the years, ``the drought was pretty much over by autumn,'' she says. Ms. Browning-Easton was one of the earliest optimists on the Texas drought. In early June she predicted to a meeting of ranchers in Corpus Christia that the drought would begin easing in August as more normal rainfall returned to the state. ``Most people were asking ``Will there be rain?'' '' she recalls. ``So I went there and said, `Yes, there will be rain.' '' There is hope for the months ahead. September and October are traditionally the state's best rainfall months as tropical storm systems from the Gulf butt heads with cold fronts descending from the north. The result is usually many days of widespread, heavy rains -- just the kind needed to break the drought. Whether that happens this year remains to be seen. In the meantime, there's a good chance that the drought picture will continue to be confusing to many. ``That's the funny thing about the drought,'' says Prof. Wilton of Texas A&M. ``You can't say, `Yesterday I was in a drought but today I'm not.' It's kind of hard to say when the end of it is.''
