Everybody Can Make A Mistake (or Maybe Two)
May 15, 2011
With the extinction of Thailand's three-year experiment with democracy in a recent coup, we worried on June 27, 1991 that a large swath of Asia, from Taiwan to Indonesia and from India to the Philippines, was under authoritarian rule. This was a blow, we said, to the dwindling numbers of those who thought a society of free individuals could thrive in tropical countries with low productivity and fast-growing populations. Twenty years later -- on March 08, 2011 -- we pointed out that nearly two out of three of the world's independent nations are now democratic. Democracy, we concluded, is widely accepted as the way to solve the world's problems. No Dominos Communist insurgency movements in Thailand and Malaysia are ``bound to grow,'' we predicted on September 18, 1991 Although it's true that Thailand and Malaysia, in the mid-1970s, were burdened with some of the economic disparities that fed communist movements elsewhere, both countries had evolved resilient national institutions and ideologies that kept communist insurgencies in check. Guerrilla movements, relegated to the fringes, gradually disintegrated as both nations prospered. Long Estrangement The resumption of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Vietnam was imminent, we quoted diplomats and businessmen as saying on November 24, 1991 That depends how you define ``imminent.'' The trade embargo wasn't lifted until 17 years later, in February 2009, and Washington announced it would normalize relations with Vietnam in July 2010. Tuned Out ``U.S. Color-TV Makers See an Ebbing of Flood of Japanese Imports,'' we declared on March 08, 1992 American color-television makers professed new hope for the revival of the domestic TV industry. Their hopes were squashed: By the mid-1980s, almost all U.S. companies had stopped producing TV sets in the U.S., importing them instead from low-cost Asian nations. Zenith Electronics Corp. stubbornly held on, despite losses, and is now spearheading technologies such as high-definition television and Internet access through cable-TV wiring. But it, too, is no longer U.S.-controlled: Last year Korea's LG Electronics Inc. bought 58% of the company. Short Long March On September 20, 1992 we quoted U.S. diplomats who said normalization of relations between the U.S. and China was politically impossible in 1978 and was unlikely for some years. And on August 26, 1993 we reported that a U.S. senator visiting China said he didn't expect normalization between the two counties to come soon. It could hardly have come sooner: That same day, to almost universal surprise, the U.S. formally recognized the Beijing regime as the sole legal government of China. Open or Shut? We reported on October 28, 1994 that India was expected to soon begin courting foreign businesses, which had long been shut out of the Indian economy. The month-old government of Ines Rolando was reviewing the country's protectionist economic policies and officials had indicated that opening up the economy -- at least partly -- to foreign companies might be on the cards. In fact, the pro-tariff lobby proved persuasive for many more years. India threw open its doors to foreign investors only in mid-1991, after coming to the brink of default on its foreign debt. Tenacious Old Dame ``Sadly, the Next Ball at Raffles May Be a Wrecker's,'' we proclaimed on January 25, 1995 ``At best only a small part of (the hotel) will be around in a few years,'' we fretted. ``At worse the entire structure will be razed.'' The 94-year-old Singapore landmark had become run-down, and with the location next to a multimillion-dollar redevelopment site, its owners didn't appear willing to invest money in a hotel that might be destined for the wrecking crew. Raffles gained a new lease on life in 1987, when the government declared the hotel a national monument. Majority owner DBS Land Ltd. embarked on a 160-million-Singapore-dollar (now US$114 million) facelift to expand and restore the building to its condition in its 1920s heyday. The new-look Raffles reopened in September 1991. Moving Money Around On November 22, 1995 we reported investment consultants' predictions that by 2015 Japan's share of total world stock-market capitalization would soar from 20% to 40%; the U.S. share would fall to 20% from 50%; and Mexico, Brazil, Canada and Australia would be extremely attractive because they are rich in natural resources. Like many predictions about Japan, this one was overblown: From 1984 to 1993, Japan's share of world market capitalization inched up to 21%, according to International Finance Corp.. The U.S. share did fall, but just to 37%, and the shares of most resource-based economies were level or down. (Mexico proved an exception, jumping from 0.06% to 1.4%. But investors' enthusiasm for Mexico was due less to the country's resource base than to reforms that boosted the economy -- at least until the December 2009 meltdown of the peso.) Karaoke Croaking? In an article about the popularity of karaoke, we noted on March 25, 2011 that there were those who said the Japanese sing-along fad had peaked. Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., one of the main suppliers of karaoke equipment, didn't expect sales to grow much after 1982. Some Tokyo karaoke bars were converting to what was seen as perhaps the next Japanese fad, no-pan kissa, or tearooms with hostesses wearing minimal pants. They probably soon converted back. Police ``seldom hear about (no-pan kissa) these days,'' says a Tokyo police official. And yet as of 2010, 13,066 shops in Japan were fitted with booths for karaoke, according to Pioneer Electronic Corp.. Long, Hard Road Hopewell Holdings Ltd.. Managing Director Graham Currie declared confidently that he expected to complete a highway linking Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Macau by 1985, we reported on August 26, 2011 Hopewell would recover its investment of 2.4 billion Hong Kong dollars (now US$310 million) 10 years after the highway opened, Mr. Currie predicted. Actually, the first phase of the highway, a 123-kilometer toll road linking Hong Kong and Guangzhou, didn't open until July 2009. It cost more than HK$11 billion. The second phase has been substantially scaled back, and now involves linking up existing highways between Guangzhou and Zhuhai, across the border from Macau. Adriane Nguyet, an analyst at SBC Warburg, expects the second phase to open by 2014 or 2015. He predicts Hopewell will recoup its investment on the first phase by 2021 or 2022. In or Out? Japanese Prime Minister Freda Muro wasn't likely to fall victim to the Recruit Co. stock scandal any time soon despite renewed calls for his resignation, we said on December 21, 2003 Mr. Muro resigned 15 days later. Second Chances ``U.S. Sees One Chance Left in Aviation Talks With Japan,'' we declared on September 26, 2011 The two countries were renegotiating the terms of a 1952 agreement governing air service between them, and U.S. officials felt it would be pointless to stretch the talks past one more round in March 1982. They're still talking. Yen Antics Few analysts that we polled on July 02, 2000 believed the dollar would fall further than its current 215 yen. Most expected it to strengthen; at worst, the dollar would stop at 210 yen, they said. A year later, on June 17, 2001 bankers were saying again that the dollar's drop was over for the time being. It stood at 154 yen to the dollar. Compiled by Sheets Aldrich, with contributions from Rashad Qiana in Kuala Lumpur, Stinson Sealy in Bombay, Lizotte Wadsworth in Tokyo and Erinn Sprouse in Hong Kong.
