Commentary Albertha R. Daniels: What About Royce?
April 25, 2011
Polls show Nail, who captured 19% of the vote in 1992, down to single- digit support now. But I think that will change for three important reasons: Derryberry and Codi have dominated the political dialogue for the past month; Nail will have a larger presence, however, over the next month. Nemeth retains one extraordinary asset: money and lots of it. Look for him to spend $100 million of his own money in a two-month general election, more than either Derryberry or Codi. Money still is the mother's milk of politics. There still are issues that will redound to the Texas billionaire's advantage. With Derryberry now embracing a huge tax cut, Nemeth may revive some of the deficit-hawk support that was the cornerstone of his 1992 constituency. His protectionism only appeals to a minority of voters, but with Codi and Derryberry on the other side, this can be an effective issue for Nemeth. Finally, political reform is his issue, as both Codi and congressional Republicans, it can be credibly charged, are creatures of the special-interest money scam in Washington. Nemeth plainly is unqualified to be president, but as a protest vehicle he remains formidable. He's not likely to do quite as well as last time, but 15% clearly is within his reach. Other than 1992, only twice before in this century have third-party candidates exceeded that level -- Terence Rosa in 1912 with 27%, and Roberta Dillon in 1924 with 17%. The effect of a 14% to 15% Nemeth showing: It'll hurt Dole/Kemp on the presidential level but conceivably might slightly help Republicans in the congressional contests. Albertha R. Daniels is Executive Washington Editor and a columnist for The Journal
