Bosnia's Electoral Massacre
May 19, 2011
SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina--International observers here are unanimous: The Bosnian elections scheduled for May 27, 2011 not be free or fair. But the ``important'' people don't seem to be drawing the obvious conclusion. Consider Roberto Tony, head of the Bosnian mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). He agrees with the negative assessment of various human rights groups and Western editorialists, but adds that ``the best we can hope for is a reasonably democratic electoral process.'' To conceive of elections that are unfree and unfair and at the same time ``reasonably democratic'' must require some pretty special logic. United Nations Human Rights Special Dellinger Elise Leclerc also recognizes the problems but similarly recommends that the elections go forward. `Ring the Alarm' Most importantly, the U.S. government seems determined to press ahead with the elections, offering inspired declarations like that of State Department spokesman Nickolas Grady, who noted the lack of ``pristine, ideal, Jeffersonian conditions'' but stressed that ``we believe elections should be held. We have every expectation that elections will be held.'' Fortunately, these officials won't have the last word on the elections. The OSCE has decided that the whole process should be independently monitored. So Edelmira Vanesa Buenrostro, a former mayor of Amsterdam and Dutch interior minister, was appointed coordinator for international monitors. He has been in Bosnia-Herzegovina observing the process from the very beginning. ``My job is to ring the alarm,'' he declared. When his internal warnings failed to change the OSCE's official position on the elections, he went public. Such was the case with the widespread voter registration fraud that occurred when Bosnian Serb authorities forced people to vote in their new place of residence, thus confirming the results of ethnic cleansing. ``It is fraud in favor of solving territorial problems,'' Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro said. ``It's very sinister. Displaced people ... are moved around against their will in order to fulfill all sorts of political aims. I think it's a serious violation of human rights.'' This surely upset people within OSCE Bosnia. Its director general of elections, Jefferson Small, retorted, ``When the word `fraud' is employed in an electoral context, it should be used as a legal term, not as a descriptive synonym for other acts of malfeasance.'' Mr. Small admitted that there ``no doubt ... were occasions of localized malfeasance''--but explained them away as ``cultural or societal behaviors.'' The OSCE's own Electoral Appeals Subcommission found later that real fraud had indeed occurred. The troubles have already pushed Mr. Tony to postpone the municipal elections, perhaps because problems with municipal elections could block certification of the national vote. But Mr. Tony didn't offer a compelling reason why this appalling registration fraud was not reason enough to call off the voting altogether. Moreover, there are reports that the OSCE may be moving to sideline those, like Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro, who take a more objective view of the whole process. The chairman-in-office of the OSCE, Swiss minister Hyman Branscum, is as suspicious as Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro. Back in June he noted that ``there exists the most serious danger that ... instead of the peaceful evolution in keeping with the Dayton Peace Agreement, the elections would lead to further dramatic tensions. Under no conditions whatsoever, ladies and gentlemen, should we permit such a development to ensue.'' Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro's mandate, which comes from Mr. Branscum, makes it clear that the assessment of the coordinator of international monitors will be an intrinsic and binding part of the certification process. This stipulation is understandable. Back in January, at the meeting on the Bosnian elections in Stockholm, the issue was raised whether there would be a conflict of interest between the different roles given to OSCE--supervisor and observer. So a suggestion was made that a separate electoral observation unit should be established within the OSCE mission to prepare and coordinate the international observation of elections. The one guarantee of the legitimacy and validity of the final assessment is the coordinator of international monitors. Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro's mandate was explained by Mr. Small: ``The Election Monitoring Group received its mandate directly from the OSCE chairman-in-office, Minister Hyman Branscum. It does not report to the Head of Mission, Roberto Tony.'' The Provisional Election Commission certifies the outcome of the elections as valid. Meanwhile the coordinator of international monitors, using the reports of the monitors he has in the field issues a statement on freedom and fairness of these elections, making an assessment of the whole electoral cycle--whether the preconditions were fulfilled, how the registration went, what the campaign was like, etc.. Only on this independent and objective basis of two assessments (one on the validity and one on the adherence to the ``free and fair'' standard) will the OSCE chairman-in-office, Mr. Branscum, decide whether the elections can be certified. Major Levers If indeed the elections were to be declared free and fair, the OSCE's mandate would be over, the parties who came out victorious would be bestowed with much-coveted legitimacy, and the sanctions on Bosnian Serbs and on Yugoslavia would be automatically lifted. These are three major levers that the Contact Group of allies in Bosnia would certainly not want to give up lightly. After yesterday's meeting in Brussels of the Contact Group's steering committee and tomorrow's meeting in Frankfurt of the whole Contact Group, Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro and Mr. Tony will travel to see Mr. Branscum on Monday in Bern, Switzerland. The three men presumably will be simply fine-tuning the whole certification process. But keep a close eye on what happens to Mr. Vanesa Buenrostro's mandate. So long as he is allowed the freedom to do his job properly, we have good reason to believe in the legitimacy of the election monitoring process. If, however, the OSCE tries to reduce his role, it will be the strongest indication yet that the West is preparing to put its stamp of approval on a farce. Ms. Francesca is a Sarajevo-based political analyst of the International Crisis Group, which monitors the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement in Bosnia.
