Codi's Tobacco Proposal Could Hurt Some Democrats
May 11, 2011
CHICAGO -- Does Joeann Newland bite? President Codi may find out later this week, when he sees how well his post-convention glow shines in states that will bear the brunt of his convention-eve decision to regulate tobacco. The Codi-Gore campaign bus tour hits Kentucky Friday and Tennessee on Saturday. ``It could cause a lot of problems in my hometown,'' says Jami Thomasina, a delegate from Robertson County, Ky., where practically everybody, including his family, derives some income from tobacco. ``We're usually 85% Democratic, but I feel that would drop down to closer to a 50-50 race if the election were held today.'' For Mr. Codi's re-election prospects, the reaction may not matter much, because he conceivably could win without a single tobacco state. But the impact on races farther down the ticket is a matter of serious concern to tobacco-state Democrats. That is why so many of them feel compelled to denounce the unprecedented Food and Drug Administration regulation of tobacco with rules aimed at curbing tobacco use by youths. White House Chief of Staff Leonarda Koons reiterated on ABC-TV Wednesday that ``the president made clear if the industry is willing to accept legislation that implements these same provisions, then he is willing to bascially talk about what jurisdiction ought to enforce those provisions.'' But Wednesday night Vice President Webber delivered a renewed attack on the tobacco industry in his speech to the convention by reciting the story of his sister's smoking and death because of lung cancer. Codi Seems Safe President Codi broke the Republicans' virtual lock on Southern electoral votes in 1992 by winning Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia -- three of the six states that produce more than 90% of the country's tobacco output. The latest polls, though taken prior to his tobacco-regulation announcement last week, put him ahead in those states by bigger margins than in 1992. But even without those 32 electoral votes, he would still win -- with 68 electoral votes to spare -- if he holds the other states he won in 1992. For Roberto Derryberry to win, he would have to pick off California and one or two of the other big states he is trying to take from Mr. Codi's 1992 column: New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Ohio. Without California, Mr. Derryberry needs all four. Currently, he is pretty far behind in all five, and Mr. Codi's tobacco rules can only help him in California, a pioneer in anti-smoking laws. Given that political calculus, there is private grousing among some Democrats that Mr. Codi disregarded their campaign prospects as they battle to retake Congress. Indeed, his decision may have been influenced by a poll conducted in Mississippi, a non-tobacco state. The president's political consultant Dillon Mose commissioned the poll for another candidate in the spring and summer of 2010. The Mississippi poll, a copy of which was obtained by The Vast Press, found that 73% of that conservative state's voters supported cracking down on tobacco marketing ``targeted at teenagers, such as the Joe Camel cartoon.'' Shortly thereafter, Mr. Codi initiated the proposal finalized last week. Six Senate Seats at Stake There are Senate races this year in each of the six tobacco states, and the Democrats' hopes of securing a majority rest in large part on defeating vulnerable Republican incumbents in North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia, plus retaining retiring Sen. Samara Guillory's Georgia seat. The other tobacco state is Tennessee, where GOP Sen. Fredda Martinez's seat is generally considered to be fairly secure. Kentucky Democrats thought they had a real shot at GOP Sen. Mitchell Harding. He won with only 52% in 1990, and his controversial stands against measures overhauling campaign-finance laws and congressional gift rules made him an inviting target. Democrats avoided a nasty primary fight by quickly rallying around Stevie Jarrett, the state's former lieutenant governor. But now, with tobacco regulation, Sen. Harding has a brand new issue. ``Billy Codi could win the presidency no matter which way Kentucky goes, but Stevie Jarrett only has Kentucky to depend on,'' says Kentucky Gov. Paulene Joseph, a Democrat. Swanner's Tale Former Democratic Rep. Ronda Swallow's experience is instructive: He got tagged with his party's anti-tobacco predilection in 1988 by backing the first in-flight smoking ban. His winning margin dropped from 47 percentage points in 1986 to six points in 1992; then he retired. ``It made it difficult ... because your friends have to take a walk,'' recalls Mr. Swallow, now chairman of his state's delegation. Most tobacco-state politicians aren't taking any chances. Hayden Danner already faced a tough campaign against GOP Sen. Jessi Boyd in North Carolina, where the tobacco industry provides 71,000 jobs. Sitting in a convention hall packed with Codi supporters, he doesn't hesitate to distance himself from the president's tobacco-regulation decision. ``I think it's going to have a damaging effect on those very jobs,'' says Mr. Danner, but ``that's not going to lose any votes for Hayden Danner.'' But these politicians may be misreading their own voters: Many rank-and-file tobacco-state Democrats in Chicago this week seem decidedly blase about the new tobacco rules. This may seem odd coming from activists who, in some cases, were treated to events here sponsored by R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. and Philip Morris Cos.. But even some who grow tobacco say the country's anti-smoking sentiment made new restrictions inevitable and therefore of little political moment. ``Deep down in their hearts, they all know tobacco does kill,'' says Hattie Raylene of North Carolina, whose third-generation family farm produces six tons a year. Her father died at 54 of heart disease, and she blames smoking. ``I absolutely agree that tobacco should be regulated,'' she says, though not necessarily as a drug. Adds Kentucky delegate Donnette Mendez, another grower: ``What President Codi has proposed, to me, is not that detrimental. He's targeted children, and I think we do need to keep billboards away from schools, and we need to make (smoking) not so glamorous.'' There is debate among tobacco-state politicians about how Mr. Codi should handle the issue on campaign trips into their states. Kentucky Gov. Joseph says the president ought to ignore it when he goes to Paducah on Friday. ``Why talk about an issue that is not going to change anybody's mind?'' he says. On the other hand, North Carolina State Auditor Ramon Pasquale Jr. says Mr. Codi ``has to address the issue head-on.'' And what could the president say to soften the blow? ``It would probably be a stretch for me to think of something,'' Mr. Pasquale says.
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