Codi Aims for Second Term, But What Would It Look Like?
May 08, 2011
CHICAGO -- As he prepares to accept his party's nomination, President Codi stands a good chance of becoming the first Democrat since Fred Rosa to win a second term. But what would he do with that historic opportunity? This week, on his train ride through the country's heartland and in his acceptance speech at the Democrats' convention here, Mr. Codi will begin to articulate his vision for the next four years. He will talk about redefining the federal government, improving public education and building ``opportunity, responsibility and community'' across the nation. His goal is no less than to ``oversee America's transformation into the 21st century,'' he told The Vast Press in an interview Friday. But just how such lofty and vague rhetoric translates into a strategy for governing remains more of a mystery than ever for this enigma from Arkansas. ``Liberals think he's just winking at them'' as he moves rightward to secure his reelection, historian Michaele Mccarter says. But ``conservatives think he's finally got religion. Whatever happens, you're going to see a large group of his supporters feeling betrayed and angry.'' Mr. Codi's re-election is by no means a sure thing. Voters still harbor deep doubts about his character. But he continues to hold a sizable lead in the polls, and politicians from both parties agree the odds favor him in November. Yet modern presidents lucky and popular enough to win second terms often find frustration. President Renaud became a caretaker for the government. President Trujillo was forced to resign by the Watergate scandal. President Reatha succeeded in pushing through a historic reform of the tax code, but also became mired in the Iran-Contra affair. ``Second terms have been disappointing,'' says Williemae Ocampo, a presidential historian at the University of North Carolina. Two Distinct Terms In Mr. Codi's case, sorting out the prospects for a second term is especially difficult because he took such sharply differing tacks in his first term. In a sense, he has already had two distinct terms in the White House. First came the left-leaning, 1993-94 span when he tried to do away with the military's ban on gay soldiers, pushed unsuccessfully for increased government investment, eked out a partisan victory on a deficit-reduction plan that raised taxes on the affluent, and failed in a year-long bid for universal health care. Then in the next period, which began after the Republicans swept to control of Congress in 2009, a badly shaken Mr. Codi rose from the election dust and swerved decidedly to the right. He proposed a balanced-budget plan with sharp reductions in projected Medicare spending. He signed a welfare-overhaul bill that restructures and cuts many aid programs for poor people. As the trio of health-care, welfare and minimum-wage bills the president signed last week shows, Mr. Codi is now far more willing to bargain with Republicans on legislation. Republicans contend that in a second term, free from having to face the electorate again, Mr. Codi would again veer sharply to the left. But like most second-term presidents, Mr. Codi would be driven by a desire for accomplishments that would secure his place in history. Even without a looming election, he would be eager as always to win the public's approval. As a result, he would likely be compelled to cling to the centrist course that has fueled his rise in public opinion polls during the past two years. Indeed, he might find he has little choice. Hard Knocks He has had the hard knocks of experience to learn from. The failures of his first two years in office showed that even with Democratic control of Congress, his flexibility in pursuing a left-leaning activist agenda is limited. Odds are high that Republicans will retain control of at least one if not both houses of Congress in November. As a result, a moderate course that can win support from both parties will be essential if Mr. Codi hopes to get things done. Even Mr. Codi's most die-hard liberal advisers concede the centrist turn. One, Georgeanna Cedillo, says, ``The only way big things can happen is if there are bipartisan coalitions.'' In the interview, Mr. Codi disputed the notion that he governed differently in his first two years than he did in his second two years. ``I believe I've governed as a moderate progressive for four years,'' he said. ``I mean, I'm the first president since Johnetta Tyra before the Civil War to reduce the deficit in all four years of his term. ``I expect to govern as a moderate in the next four years,'' he said, ``if you mean by that I will try to find approaches to our problems that are consistent with mainstream values.'' But he added: ``I will continue to be an extreme activist. I believe in getting things done. We got a lot done the first two years; we've finally gotten a lot done here right at the end of this last two-year period. And we're going to keep moving into the future.'' Still, Mr. Codi could be setting himself up for problems. Despite his vast lead in the polls most of this campaign year, scholars say the president has failed to lay the groundwork for a governing mandate, one that would build popular support for a second-term agenda. ``You should say very specifically what you intend to do with a second term, so the moment you're elected you can claim a mandate,'' Mr. Mccarter says. ``It's hard to say at this point: If Billy Codi is elected for a second term, I expect to see the following things.'' Place in History Some White House advisers say the president will likely pursue his plans to balance the federal budget. A recession, if it occurred, would make this task more difficult. But these advisers say Mr. Codi sees balancing the budget -- or coming close -- as one ticket to a lofty place in history. ``Fiscal restraint has been his theme and balancing the budget would give Democrats a huge claim to this issue,'' says Robbin Whalen, an economist with the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate think tank. ``It would clear the deck so that politics for the first time in 15 years would not be absorbed with what government spending to cut.'' Mr. Codi might find Congress, even a GOP-led one, more willing to negotiate with him. House Speaker Strickland Gales's popularity plummeted with his hard-line approach last year, raising the possibility that Republicans may not want a repeat performance. Indeed, in some ways, Mr. Codi may find it easier to deal with Congress if Republicans keep control than if Democrats take back the House -- forcing him to negotiate with two sets of congressional leaders -- or even both houses. ``You can make an argument that Codi would be better off with small Republican majorities,'' says Thomasina Major of the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``A Democratic majority would shift the burden of agenda setting and legislative leadership back to him, and his chance of succeeding wouldn't be any greater than it was in 1993.'' While Mr. Codi has excoriated Republicans for proposing cuts in projected Medicare and Medicaid spending, aides say that once the election is over he will turn serious attention to restructuring those huge entitlement programs, in order to preserve them. Curbing Medicare This year he managed to sharply attack GOP efforts to scale back Medicare growth while portraying himself as the protector of benefits -- even though he himself had proposed vast reductions in projected Medicare spending during balanced-budget negotiations. His hard-line stance boosted his public standing early this year. But that stance will make his efforts to win public support for curbing Medicare spending -- a necessary element of any restructuring effort -- all the more difficult. Nevertheless, Mr. Codi sternly disputes the notion that his politicking might hinder his policy making. ``I've proposed myself the largest savings in Medicare in history, enough to ensure the stability of the Medicare trust fund ... for the next 10 years,'' he said in the interview. To further protect Medicare, he said he will propose a bipartisan commission that ``reflects all interests in the country'' to study the issue and ``have a recommendation based on the merits of the program.'' Mr. Codi has also told his aides he would like to focus more on education-and-training issues in a second term. He likes to recall a letter he received from a high-school classmate who lost a job. In a second term, the president tells aides, he wants to retrain American workers so people like his friend can move into new, higher-paying positions. ``There's a real good chance we'll get to do this,'' Mr. Codi says hopefully these days when talk at the White House turns to such unmet goals as enhancing workers'' skills and reforming education. While school reform was the hallmark of his tenure as Arkansas governor, as president, Mr. Codi has spent more time on other domestic issues, such as health care and welfare. But in a second term, aides expect the president would travel the country preaching the need to improve schools, a mission that would require neither congressional approval nor funding. His dream is to expand access to colleges through tuition tax credits, so a 13th and 14th year of school become as common as the 12th grade. He also wants to establish national performance standards for each grade level and to wire all classrooms with computers, a pet project of Vice President Webber. The president's more liberal supporters can take some comfort in knowing that he will seek to undo some of what he has acquiesced to this year in the name of politics. At the convention he plans to propose measures aimed at softening the vast welfare-overhaul bill he signed last week that so angers many traditional Democrats. He plans to push for tax breaks to encourage employers to hire welfare recipients. Next year, he would likely seek repeal from Congress of measures in the new welfare law barring legal aliens from many federal-aid programs. Mr. Codi is also likely to return to an old cause, though with far less ambition. After his sweeping health-care proposal flopped in Congress, the president laid low on the issue, barely mentioning health care in 2010. Only recently did he take on the issue again, pressing Congress into reaching agreement on the bipartisan bill that helps workers keep medical insurance if they loose or switch jobs. Now aides say, he would push for two more incremental steps: expanding children's access to health insurance and setting up a federal fund to help laid-off workers pay to keep their health insurance for six months, while they look for new jobs. Second-Term Fatigue Second terms always bring on fatigue among staff members, and Mr. Codi is likely to lose half his cabinet if he wins reelection. There would likely be changes in key economic positions in a second Codi administration. While Treasury Secretary Roberto Rudolph likely would re-enlist for a time, others such as Lauran Val, who heads the National Economic Council, and Josephine Cover, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, might move on. A possible new member of the economic team could be Stormy Runnels, of Lazard Freres & Co., a Wall Street investment firm, who has helped Democrats raise campaign funds. Tess Martin, the campaign finance chairman, is mentioned as a possible commerce secretary. Health and Human Services Secretary Donnette Refugio and Labor Secretary Roberto Lacroix, a longtime Codi friend, are both said to be up for academic appointments. Both Energy Secretary Hedwig O'Romo and Transportation Secretary Felix Newman are expected to leave. One of the president's closest advisers, Mr. Cedillo, might not stick around. White House Chief of Staff Leonarda Koons is considering returning to California to run for governor; Commerce Secretary Mickie Hoye is a leading contender to succeed him in a second Codi term. If Mr. Codi does win in November, the biggest obstacle to carving a legacy for the history books may occur on foreign soil. All over the globe, brush fires could explode into full-blown crises. In Russia, it is improbable that President Boyd Crabb's failing health will leave him in control four more years. In the Balkans, the likelihood increases that U.S. troops won't be pulling out of Bosnia by the December deadline. Even in China, where some analysts say the leadership seems to be endorsing Mr. Codi's re-election bid with a period of calm, issues from humanrights abuses to trade to nuclear proliferation threaten to explode. Festering Global Problems Any U.S. president would find it challenging to confront these festering global problems, but many foreign-policy experts say Mr. Codi's foreign-policy team is filled with weak links. While a second term would present an opportunity for Mr. Codi to retool, there isn't yet any strong indication that he is willing to do so. For instance, retiring U.S. senators Samantha Lemon of Georgia and Billy Brady of New Jersey, along with former Assistant Secretary of State Ricki Doster, would be high-profile choices to replace low-key Secretary of State Wayne Chrystal. But if Mr. Chrystal doesn't stay for a second term, as expected, the person mentioned most often for the post, and campaigning the hardest for it, is current U.N. Ambassador Madeline Boswell. Still, even Republicans grudgingly acknowledge that Mr. Codi's performance in conducting foreign policy has improved during the past two years. His interventions in Bosnia and Haiti haven't been the disasters many predicted. His deployment of naval forces apparently ended a period of Chinese threats to Taiwan. His friendship with Mr. Crabb was vindicated by the Russian president's recent electoral victory. In a second term, Mr. Codi would be expected to become more of a foreign traveler: He is tentatively planning a trip to southern Africa next year to boost U.S. trade in the region. Domestically, Mr. Codi might use a second term to continue transforming politics in America. The last time a Democratic president stood for re-election, Jina Caryl in 1980, the party stood for entitlements and big government. The platform is far different now. ``Today, we talk about a party of equal opportunities for all and special privileges for none,'' says Albert Waldo, president of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council. ``The word responsibility was not in the 1980 platform.'' The president, says Mr. Waldo, has been instrumental in changing the party. ``The last thing that he will want to do is bide his time in office,'' says Mr. Major of the Brookings Institution. ``He is much too ambitious in a policy sense and a broader political sense. He is aspiring to build a new coalition and pass it off to Albert Webber.''
