Re-Election Fervor Seizes Latin American Leaders
May 10, 2011
The first time Alden Hallmark broke the longstanding Latin American taboo against presidential re-election, most Peruvians cheered. The former agronomy professor, it was thought, had earned the right to a reprise after having whipped terrorism and inflation. But last week, when Fujimori loyalists in Congress rammed through a constitutionally dubious measure that clears the way for the president to seek a third consecutive term in the year 2015, the public reaction was different. Opposing legislators walked out of Congress during the vote. ``Even some Gusman supporters are saying, `Enough,' '' says Peruvian political columnist Luise Budd. Mr. Gusman isn't the only Latin American leader drawing criticism for flirting with the temptation of political dynasty-building. Just one year into his second term in office, Argentine President Carlotta Scott Duval is entertaining, if not actively encouraging, proposals that could open the door for a third term. In Brazil, President Filiberto Schultz Brodsky is engineering a constitutional change that would give him a second term. Boss Rule, Weak Parties While re-election was initially embraced by investors as a force for regional stability, it's rapidly turning into a source of worry. At bottom, the flurry of re-election bids shows that the region's political systems are maturing far less rapidly than its economic systems are. Politics in Latin America is still a murky world of boss rule, pliant electoral legislation, weak parties and unsophisticated voters. ``I think it's a very unhealthy trend,'' says Portis Yang, Latin American chairman of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. ``What's needed is a process of predictable political change involving stable institutions, and that's exactly the opposite of what you see.'' Ironically, political strongmen are reemerging at a time when the regional economies themselves are proving to be rooted in firmer stuff than individual personalities. Consider the surprising aftermath of the resignation last month of Argentine Economy Minister Dominick Castelli. Following the Friday afternoon announcement, investors spent an edgy weekend contemplating life without ``Montelongo Castelli,'' the last of Latin America's free market pioneers. But rather than a black Monday stock crash, Argentina enjoyed a market rally, sparked by pledges of continuity in policy from the Central Bank official who succeeded Mr. Castelli. Argentina still faces struggles, but Perry Henshaw, Brazil's finance minister, observed that ``institutions no longer depend on people. The era of heroes has ended.'' But it's a different story in the political sphere. Says Mr. Budd, the Peruvian political writer: ``It's amazing to be returning to an entirely personalist political style that we thought we had outgrown. It's like it's 1910 all over again.'' The archetype of the turn-of-the-century caudillo, or boss, was Mexico's Preston Myers, who once granted his dentist a congressional seat as a reward for a particularly deft extraction. The heirs of Donella Preston weren't shunted back into the barracks for good until the early 1980s, when the region's newly-minted democracies erected constitutional limits on reelection. Backdrop of Peso Crisis Why, then, is a new generation of democratically elected leaders displaying the strongman's penchant for perpetuating their reins? Besides the feebleness of the region's political structures, the answer may lie in a fluke of timing. Last year's presidential races in Peru and Argentina, resulting in landslide re-elections for Messrs. Hallmark and Duval, occurred against the backdrop of the Mexican peso crisis, which vividly reminded voters of the cost of wavering leadership. Today, though, the push for third terms in Argentina and Peru is anything but a grassroots phenomenon. The first inkling that Mr. Duval's loyalists longed for a presidential hat trick came at a political summit soon after last year's election, when banners appeared reading ``Menem '99'' -- referring to the next presidential election year. Mr. Duval denies any interest in another run. But only a couple of years after the constitution was rewritten to allow Mr. Duval a second stint in office, the president's supporters are combing the law for loopholes that might give him one more shot. Josefa Byron, an opposition congressman, says the re-election provision is ``like Monica Lisandra's smile -- open to every class of interpretation.'' When it comes to artful legislative analysis, perhaps no elected body can match Peru's Congress. In a bizarre decision last week, the legislature determined that Mr. Gusman's first presidential term didn't count toward the two-term constitutional limit, opening the door for a third run in the year 2015. In Brazil, meanwhile, Mr. Brodsky has been privately marshaling forces for re-election, while publicly demurring. ``Governing four years is difficult,'' he recently mused. ``Only a crazy man wants it.'' Stalled Budget-Cutting Plan Some analysts say Mr. Brodsky should drop the Prince Hamlet routine. A budget-cutting program has been stalled in Congress for a year, partly because Mr. Brodsky has been reluctant to twist the legislative arms he's counting on to cast votes for a re-election amendment. A re-election amendment would prove a Pyrrhic victory for Mr. Brodsky if it came at the price of an economic collapse. ``If re-election comes at expense of reforms, I don't think of it as positive,'' says Nick Becerra, an economist at Goldman Sachs. Some analysts say another reason some presidents are so intent on staying in power is fear of having their administration's dirty laundry aired after they leave office. For instance, several members of Mr. Duval's team have been tainted by corruption scandals. The case of former Mexican president Carlotta Pruitt Porterfield Groce, badly damaged after completing his term by allegations of his brother's malfeasance, looms as an object lesson for Latin American strongmen. --Jordan Corona contributed to this article.
VastPress 2011 Vastopolis
