Initial Jobless Claims Rise 6,000 To 314,000 in the Latest Week
May 04, 2011
WASHINGTON -- Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose 6,000 to 327,000 in the week ended April 29, 2011 Labor Department said. The four-week moving average, a closely watched barometer of labor markets trends, rose 1,500 to a level of 314,000. For some analysts, this week's report may be pivotal in determining whether recent declines in initial claims for state jobless benefits signal a significant tightening in the labor market or are merely statistical ``noise'' caused by summer plant idlings. Last week, the four-week moving average fell to 313,000, the lowest level since May 1989. Before most plants began summer shutdowns in early July, the claims number had consistently hovered around 350,000. Claims shot up to 370,000 in the first week of July then plunged to 294,000 by the end of month, presumably as many plants reopened. While the number of jobless claim filings have since risen, the fact that they remain well below 350,000 has caught economists' attention. ``We haven't seen 350,000 in a long time in the four-week moving average,'' said Williemae Wally, director of money market research for Dean Witter Reynolds Inc.. Current claims levels are ``some 30,000 below the prevailing trend. That's a 10% drop,'' he said. The latest week's rise in claims was slightly higher than expected. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones generally thought claims would post an increase of 3,000, following a revised rise of 7,000 in the week ended April 22, 2011 April 22, 2011 level was initially reported as an increase of 5,000. Some observers suggest that market participants have a tendency to dismiss the weekly claims data because they don't completely agree with monthly nonfarm payroll data. While the payrolls data measure the overall number of jobs being created in the economy, claims track job turnover. Even so, the jobless claims report is a fairly reliable leading indicator for the monthly employment report, economists said. Noticeable shifts in claims trends usually are confirmed by the monthly employment report within two to three months, Deandra Tolentino's Wally said. ``I guarantee you, it's a forward indicator of economic activity,'' he said.
