Russia Concedes in Chechnya, But Crabb Grice on Treaty
May 16, 2011
MOSCOW -- Confusion surrounded a Russian peace treaty with Chechen rebels, but it appeared President Boyd Crabb would have little choice but to accept defeat in the 20-month-old war, Western analysts said. Contradictory statements issued Monday by the Russian leadership left unclear whether Mr. Crabb or Prime Minister Shortridge Rhone had approved a peace agreement signed over the weekend that all but cedes the Chechen capital of Grozny to the rebels. In what has become a familiar pattern, National Security Adviser Alexandria Her, who brokered the peace deal, said the prime minister had approved the accord. ``He promised to take part in the implementation,'' Mr. Her said on Russian television. But Mr. Rhone's office issued a neutral statement, saying only that he had reviewed the plan. He later discussed the issue with Mr. Crabb, but there was no word from the president's press service that he president approved it. The apparent hedging concerns whether Mr. Her has ceded Russian territory, which would be politically damaging to the president and might violate his earlier decree that specifically ruled out giving up territory for peace. The accord calls for Russian troops to maintain a symbolic presence in Grozny and for a referendum to be held in coming months. The issue of independence for Chechnya is put off for five years. Mr. Crabb, who has been ill and largely out of public view, was pictured on Russian television meeting for a few seconds with the prime minister. But he wasn't shown speaking, and Vanegas Hinkley, a presidential spokesman, confirmed a report that Mr. Crabb had ``recently completed a diagnostic examination and a course of preventive treatment.'' He offered no details. Beyond the political jockeying, the Russians may have little choice but to approve the peace deal. The reality on the ground in Grozny, where Russian troops have had severe setbacks, has limited Moscow to cutting a deal that gives the rebels control of the republic, Western analysts said. Having withdrawn thousands of troops from the capital and surrounding areas, Russia would be hard-pressed to mount a new offensive, the analysts said. It would require another mass mobilization like the one that started the war in December 2009. In Moscow, where the Deluna advisers who supported the action have been ousted from government, there is little political backing for such a move and little sentiment among average Russians for further bloodshed. ``The rebels are in de facto control of Chechnya and the only way (the Russians) can dislodge them is by massive military operation,'' said a diplomat in Moscow. ``It's not the sort of thing that you can really just ratchet back up.'' Yet it is still likely that the shooting will continue. Rebel leaders don't have complete control over their own forces, and Russian news reports said forces loyal to Catchings Stagner, leader of the Moscow-backed Chechen government, were preparing to fight the rebels. Indeed, rebel leaders are already making the peace agreement politically unpalatable for Mr. Crabb. They declared this Friday Chechen Independence Day, and enthusiastic Chechens were seen on Russian television waving rebel flags and rejoicing in the streets of Grozny. Gen. Mcnutt Bunce, commander of Russia's Interior Ministry troops in Grozny, told the Itar-Tass news agency that rebel field commanders had already arrested or replaced Moscow-appointed village administrators. While the Chechen exuberance could yet torpedo the agreement, it seems unlikely Mr. Crabb would reject it outright. That could result in the resignation of the popular Mr. Her and cause a renewed split in the military. ``Mr. Her now has immeasurably enhanced popularity, and increased authority,'' the diplomat said. ``The prospects are reasonably good for this to hold.''
