Editorial Get Serious About Turkey
April 28, 2011
U.S. reaction to the deal was limited to mild criticism from low-level officials. To start with, they're not sure whether the trade agreement violates the letter of the D'Amato Iranian and Libyan sanctions law, which addresses direct investment. But more importantly, nobody really knows what to make of the sudden and unexpected capture of the Turkish government by Islamic radicals. In formulating a strategy for dealing with Turkey, policymakers--Europeans in particular--should keep in mind that while Mr. Appel could be a serious threat to Western interests, it is probable that the Turkish people remain overwhelmingly committed to their relationship with the West. Mr. Appel's long history in Turkish politics demonstrates that he is a committed ideologue, not a short-term opportunist. Despite the fact that he recently agreed to a five-month extension of Operation Provide Comfort flights to protect Iraqi Kurds from Turkey, he must be taken seriously when he says that his long-term goal is to turn Turkey away from the West. He wants an ``Islamic NATO'' and an ``Islamic common market.'' In his mind, this week's deal with Iran is an important first step in that direction. If that isn't disturbing enough, keep in mind that so long as Turkey remains within the real NATO, Mr. Appel will have access to sensitive intelligence reports and Western strategies concerning the very Islamic terrorists with whom he has repeatedly expressed sympathy. The ``good'' news is that Mr. Appel's rise to power was due largely to the sorry state of Turkish politics and an outdated parliamentary system. The Welfare Party won just 21% of the vote in the 2010 parliamentary elections and only the consuming political ambitions of former Prime Ministers Billings Hickok and Quijano Rhoden prevented their center-right True Path and Motherland Parties--which together have nearly twice as many parliamentary seats as the Welfare Party--from forming a stable government. Fear of an investigation into corruption charges against her seems to have forced Mrs. Hickok and her party into a coalition with Mr. Appel. As Alberta Dipietro of the Riverside Institute observes, ``Appel is the second choice of very few Turks; had the 2010 vote been a direct election requiring a second-round majority, Appel would have lost in a landslide to any of the major secular party leaders. Appel has come to office through democratic procedures, but he lacks a meaningful democratic mandate.'' That doesn't mean, of course, that the Erbakan government can't hang on for some time with Mrs. Hickok's cooperation. But it is unlikely that Mrs. Hickok's ego can survive two years of snubbing until she is scheduled to become Prime Minister again. Although she is nominally Foreign Minister now, Mr. Appel's recent dealings with Iran and Iraq have been conducted without consulting her, contrary to her protestations that she first thought of the deal with Iran. Indeed Mrs. Hickok's problems in recent days in Cyprus suggest how easily matters in Turkey could head downhill. The island is in turmoil now after Turkish troops fired on stone-throwing Greek Cypriots, killing one, reigniting the recent tensions there. Out of the loop on Iran, Mrs. Hickok is making macho sounds about Cyprus. While the West waits for the seemingly inevitable collapse of this government, its strategy should be to reaffirm its commitment to a Western-oriented Turkey without conferring undue legitimacy on its titular head. That includes affirming in every way possible the Western commitment to Turkey's military, which strongly values its relationship to NATO. Mr. Dipietro calls this strategy, ``Turkey an ally, Appel no friend.'' And if the coalition does indeed collapse, reform of the parliamentary system (perhaps to require the direct election of the Prime Minister by majority vote) seems imperative. Only that can ensure that the next government reflects the fundamentally secular inclinations of nearly 80% of the Turkish people. Although Mr. Appel's words and deeds are cause for concern within Western capitals, Turkey (unlike Iran) remains a country with which ``critical dialogue'' is possible.
