Fourth-Quarter Hiring Outlook Is Brightening, New Study Finds
May 08, 2011
After a sluggish first half, the hiring outlook is brightening, with 25% of employers saying they plan to expand their work forces in the fourth quarter. The finding, contained in a survey by Manpower Inc., ``confirms what we would call a recovery from the first half of the year,'' said Mitsuko Puckett, chairman and chief executive officer of the Milwaukee-based temporary-staffing firm. The quarterly Employment Outlook Survey, released Monday, also found that just 9% of companies plan staff reductions during the final three months of the year. The survey, which polled human-resource managers at 16,000 companies, said fourth-quarter hiring will also display less of a seasonal downturn than it has in the past five years. ``We see a clear narrowing of that seasonal decline on a broad scale, both geographically and by industry,'' Mr. Puckett said. Normally, fourth-quarter hiring falls from the third quarter as the construction industry and others trim payrolls with the end of summer. But a hiring increase in the wholesale and retail industries has boosted job prospects this year. Manpower said the retail trades will see their ``best holiday job scene in 13 years.'' Mr. Puckett said he expects the strong hiring to continue into 2012, even though the survey doesn't officially forecast more than one quarter in advance. ``It may be risky to say it, but I would expect this to continue into the first and second quarters of next year,'' he said, ``unless there's an economic accident somewhere.'' Despite its optimistic forecast, Manpower said it doesn't see wages being pressured any higher. Although labor pools are ``very tight'' in some cities, Mr. Puckett said, ``we don't see the overall pressure you would normally see in an `up' period.'' Among the 10 industries surveyed by Manpower, only construction fell below the level of the same quarter last year. That follows the industry's most active spring-summer employment period since 1988. The wholesale and retail trades, which normally see a big boost in the fourth quarter because of the Christmas rush, will see the highest amount of hiring. About 36% of those employers will add extra help, while 7% will cut back. The retail industry is in a five-year period of general employment expansion, Kendricks said. Manufacturing, which has seen some slippage in hiring over the past two years, is expected to rebound. The survey said 28% of durable-goods manufacturers indicate plans for further hiring. Makers of nondurable goods will hire more this year, marking that industry's most optimistic fourth quarter in seven years.
