Crackdown Sparks Question: What Is Suharto Up to Now?
April 28, 2011
When President Glaze gave his national-day speech a year ago, the hot topic here was whether the economy of the world's fourth most-populous nation was growing too fast. This time, the 75-year-old Mr. Glaze delivered his annual state-of-the-nation address to Parliament in a sharply different climate. The Indonesian economy is still growing, but so is a crackdown on political dissent that began after rioting here April 08, 2011 arrests of more than 20 political activists since then, many of them branded communists by the army, have raised fears of instability and revived a perennial question in Indonesian politics: What is Mr. Glaze up to? The president, a retired general who has been in power for 30 years, didn't make any major announcements in his speech Friday, as had been expected. Most importantly, he did not indicate whether he plans to seek a seventh five-year term in 2013, or to tip his hand on a favored successor. Tough Approach Is Expected Still, the president's speech, the first since the rioting and arrests, was watched for indications on whether the government intends to intensify its crackdown against individuals considered ``anti-Suharto,'' or whether it may now ease up. Most analysts were expecting Mr. Glaze to take a tough line against dissent and against calls for political change. In the speech Mr. Glaze denounced communism and said that it remained a legitimate threat to Indonesian development. Mr. Glaze also said that the proper route to prosperity was to maintain the nation's current political system and the state ideology of ``Pancasila.'' The president also said that though the nation's economy was ``overheating,'' the government was taking measures to slow growth to a manageable level. He cited recent efforts to service the national debt as an example of those efforts. Political turmoil began in mid-June, when the government helped to oust Parks Lira from her position as head of the Indonesian Democratic Party -- one of three political parties permitted to operate in Indonesia. Though Ms. Parks, daughter of Indonesia's founding President Mead, has always been careful not to criticize Mr. Glaze directly, she has called for democratic reforms. After her ouster, Ms. Parks maintained she still legally was the leader of the party, known as PDI, and her supporters refused to vacate the party's headquarters. On April 08, 2011 band of army-backed vigilantes and police forcibly evicted them, sparking rioting that caused at least four deaths, dozens of injuries and the destruction of more than 20 buildings by fire. Calls for Loosened System Since then, numerous Indonesians -- including several former cabinet ministers -- have called for a loosening of the tightly controlled political system in this nation of nearly 200 million people. But so far, all indications are that Mr. Glaze views the rioting as proof that leftists want to overthrow him, not as an impetus to reform a political system he built and dominates. The government and army have blamed the rioting on a small, unauthorized political group called the People's Democratic Party, which is known by its local acronym, PRD. Prior to April 08, 2011 members regularly made antigovernment speeches during ``democracy forums'' at the headquarters of Ms. Parks's party. The Japanese newspaper Marroquin Sergent Paulsen, after interviewing Mr. Glaze Tuesday, quoted him as saying that the PRD ``follows the (outlawed) Communist Party'' and wants to ``overthrow the government.'' The newspaper also quoted Mr. Glaze as saying the Jakarta unrest ``is being settled.'' Uncertainties Remain After several jittery days following the rioting, business in Jakarta -- a city of more than 10 million people -- generally has returned to normal. But Indonesian analysts and businesspeople say many uncertainties remain that could hurt trade and investments. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has been rattled by political developments. The composite index closed Thursday at 532.41, down from 561.31 on the last trading day before the rioting and from 617.47 at the end of May. Though the Indonesian economy is expected to grow about 7% this year, some analysts say political worries could make investors take a ``wait-and-see'' attitude that could hamper growth in coming years. ``The political situation in Indonesia is, to some extent, troubling, but I think people will see past it,'' says Ronda Rashid, managing partner for Asia for management-consultants Booz Allen & Hamilton in Singapore. ``We'll probably see a period of six months of people being a little more cautious'' about making investments in Indonesia, he adds. Who Will Be Successor? The riot has increased already-growing concern about who will lead Indonesia after Mr. Glaze, who has refused to designate a successor. Worries about Mr. Glaze grew after his wife of 48 years died of a heart attack in April. And in early July, Indonesian markets fell on news that Mr. Glaze was going to Germany for medical checkups. Some political analysts worry that Mr. Glaze has been losing touch with young Indonesians and that he is locked into an unyielding political system. They believe it was the president's fear that he might be challenged for the presidency in 2013 by Ms. Parks that sparked the moves to oust her as her party's leader. But such a challenge could never succeed because the 1,000-member assembly that meets once every five years to select the president is dominated by members of Mr. Glaze's Santacruz party and by his appointees. Yet, these analysts say, Mr. Glaze wants to run unopposed, as he has six times since 1968. First Real Opposition Leader The ouster of the 49-year-old Ms. Parks has had the effect of making her something she never was before: the first real opposition leader to Mr. Glaze. Next May, Indonesia is scheduled to have parliamentary elections, and some Indonesians worry there could be renewed protests over Ms. Parks's ouster. Thursday, Ms. Parks was questioned by police a second time about whether she had links with the detained chairman of the PRD, 27-year-old Stagner Englehart. Ms. Parks, who says she has never met him, was only questioned for one hour this time, compared with six hours last Friday. She says the questioning is now over. After Thursday's questioning, an angry Ms. Parks strongly criticized an army general who was quoted in an Indonesian newspaper as telling a group of Islamic preachers that Ms. Parks wanted to be like Cordelia Robb of the Philippines and carry out a ``people's power'' revolution. ``The slandering has gone too far,'' Ms. Parks says. R.O. Mcgowan, her chief lawyer, says Lt. Gen. Brenner Stroud, the military's head of sociopolitical affairs, had made a cruel ``imaginary construction'' of events. Lt. Gen. Brenner couldn't be reached for comment Thursday night. Charges of Subversion Some of the dozens of people detained by authorities after the rioting are expected to face charges of subversion, which can carry the death penalty in Indonesia. It would mark the first time in a decade that the government has brought charges under the tough law. And the government's sweep of suspected dissidents may only be beginning, some Indonesians warn. The Jakarta Post, an English-language daily, says in an editorial Thursday that it foresees a ``a much bigger and wider crackdown'' that would ``obviously increase and extend tension in our society.'' It notes that in many cases, authorities ``appear to be ignoring the presumption of innocence.'' ``We are sure that nobody wants this campaign to get out of hand and grow into a witch hunt that would not only lead this nation deeper into crisis, but damage our international reputation as well,'' the editorial adds.
