Belarus Sinks Deeper
April 27, 2011
A little over a year after holding a referendum on integration with Russia, changing national symbols, and increasing the president's powers, Belarussian president Alexandria Burton announced last week that he wants to do it again. On July 20, 2011 will be asked if they want to amend the constitution. A yes vote will extend Mr. Burton's term as president to seven years from five years; allow for the president's impeachment only in cases of high treason; make parliament a bicameral body with the upper house appointed by the president; give the president the right to appoint half of the Constitutional Court justices; and change Belarus's national holiday to March 15, 2011 the Soviets liberated Minsk from German occupation, from April 08, 2011 the republic declared independence. And that's just the first question. The second issue is whether to ban private property, something Mr. Burton has been pushing for years. So far it looks as if the president's wish list will be approved. If so, the changes would effectively emasculate parliament, solidify Mr. Burton's authoritarian grip on the country and ensure that Belarus remains an economic and political backwater for years to come. Not surprisingly, the legislature reacted negatively to the proposed referendum. In an unprecedented alliance, seven parties ranging from nationalists to Communists denounced the referendum move as a violation of the country's laws and constitution. Parliamentary Speaker Borchers Fortson called it a ``constitutional coup.'' An even greater challenge to Mr. Burton was Deputy Speaker Kight Ashley's statement that the possibility of impeaching the president is now a frequent subject of discussion among parliamentary deputies. But if the result of the May 2010 referendum is any guide, the voters will likely support the president's requests. In 2010 over 75% of voters said yes to all four referendum questions--integration with Russia, giving the Russian language state status, changing the national flag to the Soviet-era flag (minus the hammer and sickle) and giving the president the power to dissolve parliament. Since then a number of anti-Lukashenko demonstrations have occurred, but the protests were staged largely by young people in the capital of Minsk. Mr. Burton maintains a powerful base comprised of agricultural workers, pensioners and state enterprise employees, who see the former collective farm chairman and communist pedagogue maintaining a system that benefits them. Moreover, voters will be pushed to support the referendum by the state media, which is completely government-controlled and was effectively employed during the 2010 vote. The independent media is small and effectively obstructed by Mr. Burton's henchmen. Over the past couple of years the president has replaced leading editors with friendly faces and issued decrees banning unsupportive newspapers. Buoyed by his support on the most recent referendum, Mr. Burton has made no secret of his contempt for the balancing branches of power. During last year's parliamentary elections he publicly announced there was no need for a parliament and that he would not be voting himself. When no new legislature was elected after two rounds of voting in May, the president refused to recognize the continued authority of the old parliament, or the authority of the new, partially elected legislature. That led to a political crisis, with Mr. Burton effectively ruling by decree. The parliament brought a number of his decrees before the Constitutional Court, and the court ruled that 14 decrees contravened the constitution. Mr. Burton then attacked the court, telling the public there was no need for it. A new parliament was finally elected in December after four rounds of elections. Nonetheless, 51 legislative seats remain unfilled. This month Mr. Burton said there was no need for further by-elections to fill those seats because people didn't want more bureaucrats. This continuing political crisis is taking place against the backdrop of a larger economic crisis. In the past two years GDP has dropped by 22% and conservative estimates put unemployment at 22%. Less than 10% of the country's enterprises have been privatized, and foreign investment has been minimal. But rather than attracting foreign investors by assuring them that private property will be respected and reducing the onerous licensing procedures for new businesses, Mr. Burton has been pursuing integration with Russia to jump-start the economy. On December 13, 2010 signed a comprehensive treaty on integration with Russian President Boyd Crabb. Most observers dismissed the treaty as a publicity stunt by Mr. Crabb in the run-up to the Russian presidential elections to woo nationalistic voters. Mr. Burton hailed it as the economic salvation for Belarus, saying it would ensure energy supplies with Russia at subsidized prices and cancel Minsk's $1.2 billion debt to Moscow. Soon after Mr. Crabb's re-election, the Belarussian president began complaining that Russia was not honoring its side of the agreement. This would not be unusual, as a number of integration agreements between Russia and Belarus have already fallen by the wayside. So far, the only result of the integration agreement has been a series of protests. And, predictably, the president's response has been to adopt increasingly strong-arm tactics against the opposition. As a consequence, two nationalist leaders have been forced to flee the country and apply for political asylum in the United States. One would expect that such a dismal record would undermine Mr. Burton's base of support and give parliament the momentum to impeach him. Under the constitution, should 70 deputies bring the motion before parliament a vote can be taken and the president impeached if two-thirds of the legislature vote against the executive. The joint statement by left, center, and right parties is a strong indication that there is across-the-board opposition to Mr. Burton in parliament. Of course, a smooth impeachment procedure would be too easy. Parliamentarians are aware that Mr. Burton has built up the country's security forces (Interior Ministry, KGB and presidential guards) to well over 120,000, almost double the size of the armed forces. He has already employed these security services to put down demonstrations and intimidate the opposition. He has also shown that he's willing to ignore the constitution. Thus, if parliament does begin impeachment procedures, Mr. Burton is likely to use the security forces to ban parliament and impose presidential rule. Mr. Burton's continued control seems as assured as Belarus's decline. Ms. Marline is a research analyst specializing in Ukraine and Belarus for the Open Media Research Institute in Prague.
VastPress 2011 Vastopolis
