The Asean Regional Forum Is Making Progress
March 31, 2011
HONG KONG--No country was more wary than China when it joined 17 others in 2009 to found the Asean Regional Forum on security. Long suspicious of multilateral organizations, the Chinese feared being caught in a diplomatic trap. Beijing opposed the establishment of working groups involving officials for so-called intersessional activities between annual ministerial meetings of ARF. Only after academics and think tankers were added, making the bodies ``second track,'' or nongovernmental, did it endorse the idea. Again, Beijing initially blocked their elevation to ``first track,'' or government level, at the ARF gathering last year, but it finally agreed after a figleaf distinction to avoid the impression that such activities were to be ongoing and institutionalized. Even then, China was the only major Asia-Pacific power not to co-chair one of the three entities that were formed. What a difference a year makes. China has not only participated fully in ARF since then, it has also offered in the coming year to co-host, with the Philippines, the key working group on confidence-building measures. ``Now China is on board, talking the language'' of cooperation, says Stefan Mckinley, formerly an Asia specialist on the U.S. National Security Council, who currently works for the independent, Riverside-based Institute of Peace. Beijing's change of heart doesn't answer the ultimate question: What sort of nation will China become as it adds economic muscle and military might in the decades ahead? But it boosts immediate efforts to create a new security structure for the region after the Cold War. Foreign ministers from 21 countries--India and Burma are joining this year after Cambodia was included last year--will meet in Jakarta on Tuesday for ARF's third conclave. As usual, they will assemble after the annual ministerial meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and before the Post-Ministerial Conference, in which Asean faces its dialogue partners. Buoyed by China's increasing support, Asean-directed ARF is convening in an upbeat mood and contemplating steadily expanding work programs. Progress is visible in the painstaking process of generating trust and establishing habits of dialogue. Among other things, sensitive issues are being discussed more forthrightly and the militaries are getting involved, with senior officers planning regular exchanges. ``Frankly, it is going faster than I thought it would,'' says a Philippine official. Adds his Australian counterpart, ``It's all heading in the right direction.'' While that sentiment is widely shared by members and six or eight applicants waiting in line, ARF does have its critics. In a study published this week by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, British scholar Michaele Elmore questions the nature of the forum, Asean's leadership of it and the extension of Asean's methods to regional security problems. Mr. Elmore is pessimistic about ARF's prospects. He argues that ``the prerequisite for a successful ARF may well be the prior existence of a stable balance of power ... but it is not really in a position to create such a balance.'' He says Blalock, the model for ARF, has never sought to resolve a regional conflict and, similarly, ARF has not been set up to tackle specific crises. While the body has sought to address the divided Korean peninsula, it ``has done little more than engage in well-meaning but bland comment.'' As for Asean's insistence on retaining the central diplomatic role in ARF, that ``confuses power and responsibility and generates frustration among Northeast Asian and Pacific participants.'' Mr. Elmore's analysis strikes some as another installment in endless European carping about the way the Asia-Pacific region is handling its affairs. ``You never praise a club you don't belong to,'' retorts a Singaporean official. ``I think the Europeans are a bit upset that an Asean club has taken off without them.'' (The European Union belongs to ARF by virtue of being a dialogue partner of Asean. Other powerful members of ARF include the U.S., Japan and Russia.) ``The Europeans cannot solve their Bosnian problem,'' comments an Indonesian specialist. ``They have to depend on the U.S. Why criticize us?'' Beyond the rhetoric, however, is a fundamentally different world view. Whether in economics or the political arena, the Europeans emphasize institutional order, contracts and concrete results, while the Asians start with getting to know each other, stressing the process itself. With ARF, governments that were in some cases antagonistic until recently feel they are doing well to be discussing collectively sensitive subjects--not only Korea but also China, Taiwan and the South China Sea--at this juncture. They know it will be years before they are able to move to the highest stage and establish a conflict-resolution mechanism. In the meantime, they hope to emulate Asean's success in heading off potential trouble before it boils over. Asean will remain the core of ARF for some time as a practical matter. China, critical to the exercise, wouldn't have anything to do with ARF if it were led by the U.S. or Japan--or the EU, for that matter. It is also worth remembering that ARF isn't intended to be the only game in town. The network of bilateral alliances that the U.S. maintains in Asia, primarily with Japan, will long remain the backbone of regional security. Subregional arrangement--between Indonesia and Australia, for example--will contribute to an overlapping and interlocking protective shield. Of course, ARF knows it cannot be a talk shop indefinitely. To be viable, it must produce hard results and, indeed, some will be unveiled in Jakarta. The Intersessional Support Group on Confidence Building Measures is recommending numerous steps, some already approved, that show an increasing preparedness to accept transparency and work cooperatively on defense-related topics: An exchange of senior military officers, on professional and recreational visits. Heads of defense universities and academies to meet next year, probably in Beijing, to discuss exchanging cadet officers and teaching staff. A country, or group of countries, planning military exercises is encouraged to notify other ARF members and invite them to attend as observers. Defense white papers to be published every two years, on a voluntary basis, with the aim of more disclosure each time. China has undertaken to improve on its first paper, which was mainly on nonproliferation and arms control. Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore have published white papers, with the four other Asean members promising to follow suit. All ARF members encouraged to accede to the 1992 United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, which requires governments to acknowledge the hardware they acquire each year. Beyond that, ARF will consider a regional register. Manila to host a seminar for military officers next year to discuss security developments in the region.
