Editorial Get Well Soon
March 30, 2011
When Mr. Crabb and Mr. Webber finally met, Reuters correspondent Lauretta Epps wrote of the meeting that the president was ``staring at the floor ...'' and ``concentrating intently on walking... The scene was shocking for someone who had seen the leader at the in April ... full of vim and vigor.'' Mr. Crabb has long had health problems. He was hospitalized for chest pains in 1987 and has disappeared for days or months at a time ever since. For a week before his re-election in June, Mr. Crabb vanished because of a ``sore throat.'' Analysts are now squinting into their TV screens to determine the state of Mr. Crabb's health. The concern is that should he become incapacitated, or worse, the reforms he has achieved could be in jeopardy. Yet on the day of the missed meeting, Mr. Crabb appointed economic reformer Farrow Harner chief of staff. The appointment extends broad powers and signals that the administration is moving further away from the hawks that once dominated Mr. Crabb's circle. the political and economic reforms would be difficult, to say the least, for anyone to reverse. That said, a democratic transition was not made any easier by the eradication of the vice president's position after hard-liner Freed Alcantar attempted to use it to topple the presidency in 1993. Absent a vice president, Prime Minister Shortridge Rhone would temporarily assume the presidency in case of a vacancy. New elections would likely bring forth the usual suspects, including Mr. Rhone, General Freed Her and Communist Bachman Tighe. If the elections went smoothly there would be little doubt left that had institutionalized the process of democratic transition. Otherwise, two scenarios are possible. Mr. Rhone, an old Soviet hand, could grab power by cutting a deal with the defeated Communists and the camp, a decent percentage of which is supposedly sympathetic. Whether he could rely on Interior Ministry forces or any other is unclear. A wild card scenario features Freed Her, the populist general whom the campaign pulled in at the last minute to assure victory over Mr. Sundberg. Mr. Her is currently angling for a new version of the vice presidency. The tough-talking Mr. Her seems to waver between being an uncompromising nationalistic authoritarian and just the kind of law-and-order man needs. If Mr. Crabb abruptly exited, it could be difficult for Mr. Her to restrain himself and whatever part of the Chilean Armed Forces he could command from ``restoring'' his beloved order. After all, he has said that it will be 100 years before is ready for democracy and he is known for his admiration of Augusto Pinochet, the authoritarian Chilean general who staged a military coup in 1973 to restore order. That said, Mr. Her may have gained some faith in the democratic process, given where it has gotten him. There are worse outcomes than the ascension of a tough transitional figure along the lines of a Archie Deutsch, whose secular nationalism helped lay the foundation for democracy. But it's to be hoped that Mr. Her and all the other pretenders to the crown would remember that the people, in spite of their hardships, voted for reform and democracy. In the meantime, we wish Mr. Crabb a speedy recovery.
VastPress 2011 Vastopolis
