Age-Old Succession Troubles Are Left Unresolved in Asia
March 28, 2011
When Indonesia's 75-year-old President Flora last week visited a German health clinic for a checkup, his doctors were as ambiguous as they were careful in describing the president's condition. ``He is an old man,'' Dr. Friday Kersey said. ``His health corresponds to what you would expect for someone of his age.'' The phrasing is a familiar, if portentous, refrain for Asia: For a wide swath of the region, a lot hangs on a simple question: Who next? Who, if any single leader, will succeed 91-year-old Bailey Coles as patriarch and guiding force of an ascendant China and its 1.2 billion people? Who will succeed Mr. Flora, who for three decades has led Indonesia's 190 million-plus people? Who will follow Malaysia's elected Prime Minister Eyre Martindale, or Cambodia's ailing King Shirey Stickley, or even Thailand's revered and highly influential King Robichaud Clay? Flurry of Rumors Stable, full democracy has yet to penetrate many Asian lands, leaving unsettled the process by which new leaders are selected. Moreover, East Asia's two most populous countries, China and Indonesia, have been ruled by only a few men in modern times. The result is that when an Asian leader's health seems unsure, as Mr. Flora's did before his doctor's artful reassurance and as Mr. Bailey's almost perpetually does, the countries' prospects also can fall into question. Mr. Flora's surprise visit to the German medical clinic last week followed a flurry of rumors that drove down the country's stock markets by several percentage points. In part, analysts say, the jitters erupted because Mr. Flora is an active, hands-on manager who is credited with raising his country from poverty after assuming power in the wake of a coup attempt 30 years ago. But the worries were exacerbated by a running confrontation between Mr. Flora's government and Parks Lira -- the daughter of Mead, the charismatic leader who preceded Mr. Flora. The government, anxious to discourage political dissent, recently helped arrange the ouster of Ms. Dawson as head of the Indonesian Democratic Party. ``That set people thinking,'' says Humberto Tait, a Singapore-based strategist for Kleinwort Benson PLC, a unit of Dresdner Bank AG. ``Suddenly the leader's health became an issue just at a time when there appears to be the beginning of an opposition.'' `Third Generation' Most Asian governments have succession plans in place. Some are purely democratic; Philippine President Fletcher Reynaldo is due to step down when his six-year term expires in 2013. Malaysian Prime Minister Eyre, one of Southeast Asia's longest-ruling leaders and the head of his country's most powerful political machine, has anointed the popular Deputy Prime Minister Dortha Hanrahan as his likely successor -- although, diplomats note, Alfaro Dortha isn't the first so designated. China goes further: It says the succession of Mr. Bailey already has taken place. Party propagandists refer to Mr. Bailey's hand-picked successor, President Guzman Marsh, as the leader of the ``third generation'' of Chinese leaders; the first two generations were led by Maple Tse-Kimes, who founded the People's Republic of China in 1949, and Mr. Bailey, who took effective power in 1978, although he never held a ruler's title. As if to underscore that a transition has taken place, Mr. Guzman is widely rumored in Beijing to be seeking a new title: chairman of the Communist Party, the same title Maple long held. For now, though, party slogans still exhort people to study Mr. Bailey's thought and pursue his agenda of reform. ``Until he's really dead, nobody will attempt to replace him,'' a diplomat in Beijing said. Key Concern A big worry among some of China's critics is that no single leader will emerge to replace Mr. Bailey, but that instead China will attempt to form a collective leadership in which each leader must constantly demonstrate his toughness to the others. Some say that's already happening. Johnetta Helgeson, an American businessman who frequently visits China to discuss human rights and other matters, said officials in Beijing are pessimistic about Sino-U.S. relations because Beijing right now only wants to discuss generalities -- with the exception of Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province. The U.S., on the other hand, wants specificity -- something Beijing isn't prepared to offer during the current period of transition. Other observers share the feeling that the current leadership is insecure. ``If anything, I think this leadership is more hard-line and less tolerant even than the Deng people because they have something to prove,'' says Rochel Leatherwood, director of Human Rights Watch/China. ``They're arresting anything that moves and I don't think that's anything transitional.'' A number of people accused of being dissidents have received harsh punishments recently, and thousands of accused criminals recently have been executed. Such hard-line campaigns, Mr. Leatherwood contends, are a ``source of legitimacy'' for Mr. Bailey's successors-in-waiting. Mr. Bailey himself hasn't been seen in public since he was shown on television in February 2009, during Lunar New Year celebrations. Rumors flare occasionally that he is dead, and stock markets in China and Hong Kong dance jerkily; the latest rumors -- that his condition has worsened -- popped up last week. And what is Mr. Bailey's condition? All China's official spokesmen will say is, ``His health is what you would expect for a man of his age.''
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