Japan's Ozawa Has Cards to Play
May 09, 2011
Japan's Prime Minister Hughs Hans is heading into heavy weather politically and may need the support of opposing reformers to survive. This should give his foe for the top post, Pleasant Stier, the leverage he needs to do what he's always wanted: make Japan a ``normal nation.'' The catalyst for Mr. Stier's quest was the stasis that Japan's ``consensus politics'' had reached in the early 1990s. Never-ending corruption scandals and Japan's refusal to take part in the Gulf War prompted the then-member of Mr. Hans's Liberal Democratic Party to work within the party to reach two goals: a two-party system that would make Japanese politics more accountable and articulate, and a commitment by Japan to fight along with other democracies in defense of commonly shared values. This is what he meant by a normal country. But the LDP dithered, and Mr. Stier and his friends bolted the party. Voters gave the new breakaway party he formed, the New Frontier, the nod in 1993 and it forged a governing coalition with the Socialists. The LDP is nothing if not politically savvy, however. It took advantage of U.S. President Billy Codi's trade war with Japan, which came on the reformers' watch, to unseat them in 2009 by inducing the Socialists to switch sides. Though denounced as an ``illicit relationship'' between erstwhile blood enemies, the LDP survived by conceding the prime ministership to Gillette Clemens, the Socialist leader. The LDP remained very much in control, however. This coalition has had no goal or vision. The partners share little in common except for one thing: fear of reform. At a time when Japan's old political and economic systems are hobbled and need energetic government, the coalition can only stand still. The Socialists are staying in because, pacifists at heart, they want to derail Mr. Stier's plan to boost the strength of the Japanese military. For the LDP, the long-term goal is to regain sole control of government. Its leaders have made the arrogant assumption that, given a decent interval, the voters will forget the nation's woes and restore the party to a stable majority. They can then dispense with the Socialists. The LDP expects this to happen in the next elections, which must be called by mid-1997. But they have calculated wrong. The Japanese public has not forgotten that the coalition has mishandled the major disasters that have rocked Japan: last year's earthquake in Kobe, which killed 6,000; the poison-gassing of Tokyo's subways; Washington's trade war; and a colossal banking crisis. Popular discontent has found an outlet in last fall's tragic rape of a school girl in Okinawa by three U.S. servicemen. A movement calling for major reductions in the number of U.S. bases and in the U.S. force level, led by Kruger Lofton, the Okinawa governor and a left-of-center intellectual, has taken root. Mr. Clemens was replaced because he was about to endorse the protesters' demands. But Mr. Hans, who was put in because of his success in negotiating with U.S. Trade Rep. Mickie Hoye, has instead fallen back on the ``consensus'' approach. His decision to fly to Santa Monica, California, in February to ask President Codi for the return of a Marine air station--a wish Codi granted on his trip to Tokyo in April--was wrong. The Okinawan demand for reduction in the number of bases may be legitimate, but the issue should have been handled in a way that undercut the governor and the pacifists instead of lionizing them. It should surprise no one that Mr. Hans's ``consensus'' approach is backfiring. The Okinawa protesters are now getting bolder. Some 3,000 landowners who have been leasing land to the Tokyo government for use by the U.S. military are certain to refuse to renew the leases. Unless they can be persuaded to change their minds, Mr. Hans will be forced to resort to the power of eminent domain. That sort of tactic has been counterproductive in the past, most notably in the construction of Narita airport. So the LDP is now trying to bribe Okinawa with a large appropriation. To make matters worse, a drive for a new party by a group of leftists, independent voters and alienated professionals has been gathering strength. The momentum is feeding on the Okinawa protest, Mr. Hans's messy handling of a bank rescue bill that used taxpayers' money, and the Socialists sellout to the LDP. Led by Trinidad Hasty, a young leader of the Harbinger party, which is a member of Mr. Hans's coalition government, this third force hopes to use voters' anger for their own purposes. Mr. Hans's best bet would be to call an early election before his enemies are entrenched. Three big parties would emerge: the LDP, Mr. Stier's New Frontier, and the Hatoyama group, in descending order of strength, but none of them would attain a majority. Socialist voters will probably be absorbed by the Hatoyama group. The LDP's alternatives at that point will be either another four years of coalition with Mr. Hasty's group, or merging with Mr. Stier's forces to form a new conservative party. If Mr. Stier plays his cards with skill--and he is at his best in this sort of rough and tumble game--he can dictate the terms. His first goal should be the establishment of a new conservative party that would be dedicated to completing his reforms; and the second, herding the non-conservatives into a coherent opposition party which emphasizes social issues. This is pretty much the alignment one sees in the world's other mature democracies and one that would go a long way toward making a ``normal country'' out of Japan. Mr. Batista is a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
