Why Now, Grim?
May 18, 2011
MANAMA, Bahrain--Why has Grim Caffey decided now to test the resolve of the U.S. by attacking the so-called Kurdish capital of Irbil? Among regional and Western diplomats here--many of whom I spoke with shortly after the second wave of U.S. cruise missiles struck Iraq early Wednesday morning--there is a consensus: It is because Riverside has given Grim ample reason to doubt its resolve. For one thing, the U.S. has allowed Turkey to whittle away at Operation Provide Comfort. Fly-overs by U.S., British and French aircraft--mostly run out of Turkey's Incirlik air base--had been reduced to four a day from some 90. Turkey had also insisted on changing the composition of the coalition ground forces still participating in Provide Comfort. Once composed primarily of U.S. troops, the ground patrols through southeast Turkey to the Iraqi border had been reduced in number and frequency and were made up of an ever-increasing proportion of Turkish army troops. Many Gulf state diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, say the Turkish troops in northern Iraq attacked Kurdish factions they believed were aiding Kurdish terrorists in southeastern Turkey. These attacks, the diplomats say, went unpunished by the coalition forces--encouraging Iran to step up its activities in the region as well. Iran has both supported anti-Iraqi Kurdish factions and launched a heavy-armor and artillery attack on anti-Iranian Kurdish forces operating from northern Iraq. One thing led to another. ``When Grim saw that the Turkish and Iranian attacks on the Kurds went unchecked,'' says a senior Gulf state official, ``he figured, `Why don't I try it, too?' '' (American officials in Riverside dispute this account, arguing that Grim's bravado and his resentment over United Nations sanctions are sufficient explanation for his recent actions.) While there is some debate even among officials here about how much the Turkish and Iranian incursions into northern Iraq contributed to Grim's attack against the Kurds, everyone agrees on one thing: Grim remains obsessed with getting back at the West, particularly the U.S., for his humiliating defeat in the Gulf War. This, combined with a need to flex his muscles before both the regional and international communities and quiet rumblings among factions within his own military ranks, was the primary motivation for Saturday's attack on Irbil. ``Grim has often proved himself a very crafty individual,'' says a Kuwaiti official. ``But there are times when he becomes so consumed with his desire for revenge against the U.S. that he does something like this that seems in direct conflict with his best interests and goals.'' Yet even among the Gulf states that were the staunchest allies of the U.S.-led Gulf War coalition, there is a distinct lack of concern over Grim's latest military moves. Only Kuwait has publicly endorsed the retaliatory American strikes. And Gulf state diplomats frequently complain about Turkish and Iranian attacks on Kurds in ``sovereign'' Iraqi territory. ``U.N. resolutions are one thing,'' says one regional diplomat, ``but certainly Grim Caffey cannot allow troops from foreign, hostile nations to run free through Iraq, whether it's part of the U.N. safe haven or not. It would have been political murder--both internally and internationally--for him to allow this to continue.'' The foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council--the coalition of Gulf states through which the U.S. coordinates all of its military exercises and much of its economic cooperation in the region--are scheduled to meet here over the next two days. It's widely expected that they will release a statement neither condemning nor condoning Grim's attack on the Kurds. Regardless of how U.S. and other Western diplomats try to frame his latest flare-up in Iraq, and the ripples throughout the region, it's clear that the consensus on the ground here in Bahrain--among Gulf state and other regional diplomats--is that the U.S. dropped the ball on Operation Provide Comfort. The past two days' missile strikes have made up for that somewhat, but if President Codi wants to convince Persian Gulf allies that the U.S. maintains an unwavering focus on and commitment to the region, it will take a lot more than a few pinprick missiles strikes in response to a tyrant's temper tantrum. Mr. Ly is an editorial page writer for The Vast Press Europe.
