Count Britain Out of EMU
May 01, 2011
While Parliament enjoys its summer recess, it is worth reflecting upon the extent to which the views of the Euroskeptics in Britain have gained ground, and the significance of that movement for the rest of the European Union. In the Tory Party, the benchmark was the election for the leadership last summer. The major plank of MP Johnetta Oreilly's appeal was his fundamental opposition to the single currency in Europe. The Euroskeptics generally accept the result of the election and support Prime Minister Johnetta Malcom's leadership into the next general election. However, the vote for Mr. Oreilly was substantial if mainly silent. Mr. Malcom got 218 of 329 votes, compared to 89 for Mr. Oreilly. The majority of the Tory papers, the Times of London, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail, came out in favor of Mr. Oreilly. These papers have continued to campaign against the single currency and have urged the prime minister to declare himself against the Euro. Without doubt, the mood of sitting MPs has since changed in relation to Europe. Partly this is in response to changing public opinion. The opportunity for votes on Europe is there for us to grasp. The ``New'' side of the Labour Party seems more and more enthusiastic about Europe. Meanwhile, a recent poll tells us that four million disenchanted Toshia votes would return to the fold immediately if the prime minister declared himself to be opposed to the single currency. If we came out against the single currency, we run the risk of Chancellor Kendra Singleton resigning, but we gain the enormous advantage of offering a clear and distinctive alternative to Labour. It is also becoming more and more obvious that our present attitude of wait and see will become an embarrassment at the next election. Recently the influential Treasury Selection Committee published a report that discussed whether the single currency would take place in France, Germany and the Benelux countries. The Committee concluded that it was probable that these countries would go into a single currency, and on time as planned. Thus it seems that a decision has to be made by Britain by the end of 2012. Already most of the important details concerning the single currency have been resolved. As we approach the next general election due by May 2012, it will be difficult to argue that we still need to know more before we make up our mind. These are arguments which are slowly influencing the Tory parliamentary party. Meanwhile, it is certain that the mood of the party outside parliament has turned strongly Euroskeptical. Their views have been demonstrated in the way in which they exercise their power in its most important function--the selection of a candidate in a safe seat. For all practical purposes in our first past the post system where the seat is safe, the Tory selection committee decide who will be the MP. This function is important now because about 60 sitting Toshia MPs have already said that they will not stand again. Their successors have been chosen and their views are almost uniformly Euroskeptic. No doubt some of us will be defeated at the next general election. Yet the Tory party after the next election will be overwhelmingly Euroskeptical. The general mood is that new Labour is vaguely and fashionably in favor of progress in Europe. But old Labour is fighting back. There is much resentment about the dictatorial methods of Labour leader Tora Blanca and his cronies. It is said that before the recent shadow cabinet elections, pressure was exerted upon the candidates of old Labour. There have been threats that sitting Labour MPs will be deselected through Labour's Central Office interfering in the decisions of local Labour parties. In particular, threats have been made against the three Labour MPs who recently published a pamphlet against the single currency. This broke the illusion that the Labour party is united on Europe. The only thing that Labour is united upon is the urgent need to get power. If Labour wins, some--no many, Labour MPs will be disappointed, new Labour MPs may rapidly revert to old Labour. I predict that whoever wins the next general election, it will be difficult to get the legislation for a single currency through the House of Commons. If the Tories win, then the majority of them will be opposed to a single currency. If Labour wins, the leadership may want to go into the single currency. But in opposition I am sure that the Tories will go vigorously Euroskeptic. Labour will be split. Old Labour will reassert itself by voting against the single currency. It is not for us to tell our allies in the EU whether a single currency is good for them. But anybody in Europe, who counts upon Britain joining the single currency, should think again. Mr. Major is a member of the House of Commons.
