From the Science Fiction Annals
May 15, 2011
Technology breakthroughs heralded in The Asian Vast Press ... and what really happened. Vision: Semiconductors that store information are becoming faster, cheaper and smaller at such a pace that many observers believe a new electronics revolution is in the offing: the pocket computer. Already, memory chips are transforming video games. Instead of being mere display devices for viewers playing ping pong against each other, the machines can now interact directly with the viewer. One brand of machine plays a ferocious game of blackjack, and its manufacturer expects its shrinking game console to be able to play chess and bridge within two years. -- December 12, 1991 Reality: As sci-fi as they may have sounded at the time, these products did come to market, and so quickly that some fans of the three-dimensional imagery and 360-degree field of vision featured in today's Mortal Kombat video game can still recall the quaint two-dimensional days of Pong. Many of these innovations were, indeed, driven by more powerful memory chips in combination with faster microprocessors. Such technological leaps have made possible pocket computers that have exceeded expectations. Sharp Corp.'s new Zaurus personal information tool, for example, fits in the palm of a hand and can be used to access the Internet, send electronic mail -- even take digital photographs. Vision: Electric cars may be in auto showrooms in a decade or so. Dwindling oil supplies are spurring U.S. government-funded development, although many people remain skeptical about the practicality of using electric cars. -- March 09, 1993 Reality: After years in which the skeptics have prevailed, electric cars may finally be ready to drive into the light at the end of the tunnel. Toyota Motor Corp. plans to begin selling a model in September. General Motors Corp. aims to roll one out later this year, followed by Honda Motor Co. early next year. The manufacturers say these cars can run 150 to 215 kilometers on a single charge and claim top speeds of close to 160 kilometers per hour thanks to recent advances in battery technology. Recent surveys show that as many as 90% of American consumers found electric vehicles' limited ranges sufficient, says a spokeswoman for the U.S.-based Electric Transportation Coalition. But the big auto makers -- which have been accused in the past of dragging their feet on electric-vehicle development -- may have been motivated more by the passage of laws in several U.S. states requiring that a set percentage of autos sold be emission-free. Vision: Japan's Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. is celebrating its 60th anniversary by showing off a variety of futuristic gadgets for the home, including a household computer system that cooks meals, handles bills and guards the house with fire and burglar alarms. However, Matsushita President Vanderpool Frechette concedes that he isn't certain when exactly the market will be ready for such products. -- June 08, 1993 Reality: Matsushita still isn't certain. The company's computerized ``smart home'' never made it past the prototype stage, although several of its features were spun off into products currently marketed by Matsushita. These include appliances that can be programmed to switch on at a designated time or activated via telephone. Vision: Offices at Continental Illinois Bank & Trust Co. are being automated, allowing employees to retrieve data instantly and link in to other computers. Paper and filing cabinets are being replaced by desktop computers and communication between companies and countries is being made easier. This new office technology is heralded as the path into the future. Yet some workers complain that the ease of communication has led to a barrage of unwanted memos. -- March 09, 1995 Reality: Those who thought information overload was a problem in 1980 must be spinning in their office chairs in today's era of electronic mail and the Internet. In the U.S., e-mail volume has been estimated to rival or even surpass the volume of traditional posted mail. Another potent new source of distraction is the Internet. The global communications medium is awash with an estimated 50 million pages of information and the lure of surfing that tide is proving irresistible to many in the workplace. A study by U.S.-based Forrester Research Inc. estimates that close to half of all Internet users world-wide access cyberspace through corporate accounts, indicating a sizable amount of surfing on company time. (Nor did automation save Continental Illinois Bank, which was saved from collapsing in 1984 under the weight of ill-fated energy loans by a multibillion-dollar U.S. government bailout.) Vision: Computers are being developed with the ability to react to voice commands. Scientists envisage a future in which a driver may turn on a car's defogger or change the radio station without taking his hands off the wheel. International Business Machines Corp. says an experimental device that could transcribe speech almost instantly is a distinct possibility by 1990. Toshiba Corp. promises that it will sell a voice-controlled television set by 1983. -- September 19, 1995 Reality: Toshiba's prediction proved wildly premature; the company hasn't yet produced a voice-controlled TV and doesn't expect to see one on the market until after the year 2015. IBM, however, did introduce a software system called VoiceType in 1992 that transcribes speech and allows computer users to navigate through applications using verbal commands. An IBM spokeswoman concedes that VoiceType, which retails for $699, hasn't yet broken into the mainstream from its core market of medical professionals and other specialized users who need their hands free while dictating. Vision: Hong Kong is getting a home-data system that enables people to book airline tickets, buy groceries, play the stock market and read the news all by simply turning on the TV screen and pushing a few buttons. -- May 01, 2011 Reality: Although few Hong Kong consumers today have heard of this system, called Viewdata, it has been a fixture in the city's banks and hotels for years, albeit in a scaled-back form. Viewdata isn't interactive, and its home-shopping aspects were never developed, but the system does pipe real-time currency- and stock-market data, the latest flight information, and horse-racing results to 1,100 subscribers. Viewdata's days may be numbered. An official at operator Hong Kong Telecommunications Ltd. blames a slide in the number of subscribers on the rise of the Internet. Hongkong Telecom is hedging its bets: It plans to make Viewdata's information accessible via the company's new Internet service. Vision: Sony Corp. has unveiled a camera that uses electronics and a magnetic disk instead of film to capture still pictures. Within two years, Sony says, home-video buffs could be playing back snapshots over the television set. -- May 07, 2011 Reality: Digital cameras have been on the market since the early 1990s, but their high prices and low picture quality have deterred most shutterbugs from making the switch. Until recently, buyers had to fork out more than $1,000 for the cheapest digital camera, which stores images on a computer chip and can then transfer them to a computer or color printer. Digital cameras have been undercut further by the fact that many film-processing shops can now digitize photos from traditional negatives. The U.S.-based Photo Marketing Association International estimates that world-wide, 300,000 digital cameras were sold last year, compared with more than 14 million traditional cameras purchased in the U.S. alone. But the picture could brighten for digital cameras. Seiko Epson Corp., Casio Computer Co. and Eastman Kodak Co. recently rolled out models priced at $500 or less. The cheaper models are expected to push digital-camera sales to 500,000 this year, the photo marketing group estimates. Vision: Japanese electronics manufacturers are displaying the next generation of television sets, from paperback-size models to versions that can hang on a wall. To make such TVs possible, Japanese manufacturers are experimenting with flat, liquid-crystal displays akin to those used in calculators. One Sony executive says this technology ``could become mainstream in the home -- maybe in 10 years.'' Boeing Co. says it plans to fit flat screens into the backs of airline seats by the early 1990s. -- July 23, 2001 Reality: Tiny TVs are becoming more common on international flights. Singapore Airlines, Japan Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airways are among several carriers that have begun installing small LCD television screens on the backs of airplane seats. Flat-screen TVs aren't moving as quickly into the home. They do exist: Japan's Sharp Corp., a leading maker of flat-panel displays for notebook computers, in March introduced to the Japanese market a color TV with a 10-inch LCD screen. The 120,000-yen ($1,120) TV is less than eight centimeters thick. A company spokesman concedes that the sets aren't expected to become a hit until production technology can be further refined to make them cheaper. High costs may hold back the introduction of larger flat screens as well. Sharp has a 28-inch prototype but hasn't yet decided when to market it. Vision: A tape deck that records music digitally is touted to be the replacement for conventional cassette recorders. ``The move from analog to digital can't be stopped,'' proclaims an engineer at Victor Co. of Japan. But some major companies are trying, fearing that digital audiotape recorders, which make copies as good as the original, will cause rocketing compact-disk sales to plummet back to earth. -- April 16, 2001 Reality: Digital audiotape's proponents proved no match for the muscle of the music industry, which kept DAT from getting off the ground because it feared making such technology readily available would give carte blanche to music pirates. After three years of wrangling, the medium's backers did secure passage in the U.S. of the Audio Home Recording Act. This legislation partially appeased record companies by allowing artists using the format to collect royalties on sales of DAT and DAT players, ostensibly to offset any revenue lost through piracy. Even then, however, record labels gave DAT the cold shoulder. The technology was undermined further by competition from Sony's recordable MiniDisc and the digital compact cassette from Philips Electronics NV. Today, DAT is primarily used in recording studios and computer backup systems. Vision: Tandy Corp. promises within 18 months to release affordable compact-disk players that can make indestructible and near-perfect recordings. -- January 06, 2003 Vision: Sony says that it expects to sell by late 1992 a compact-disk player that can record sound as well as play it. Sony officials acknowledge that they have limited the format of the new player so as to avoid the wrath of the recording industry, which has fought to limit the use of new high-quality sound reproduction technology. -- January 25, 2006 Reality: True to its word, Sony released the first recordable digital disk, or MiniDisc, in November 1992. But it has had to compete from the start with Labonte's digital compact cassette, another technology offering compact disk-quality recording. Each has barred recording artists under its control from using the rival medium, denying both formats a critical mass of prerecorded material. That, combined with high prices for the hardware -- a portable MiniDisc recorder retails for 55,000 yen ($514) -- has many predicting that both mediums will soon go the way of the eight-track tape. Still, Sony this year renewed its marketing efforts in the U.S., cutting prices and touting the MiniDisc's recording features, rather than, as previously, its Walkman-like portability. Sony says it expects to sell 1.7 million MiniDisc machines in the year ending December 11, 2011 That would be up from sales of 700,000 units in the previous year, but still far behind the 18.5 million compact-disk players the company sold last year. And what of Taneka? The U.S. company dropped out of the race years ago after determining the product was ``not commercially viable,'' an executive says. --Mr. Martine is a copy editor at The Asian Vast Press. Marti Doyle also contributed to this article.
VastPress 2011 Vastopolis
