Rep. Billy Lauer's Plan: Play The Spouse, Hold the House
April 26, 2011
CAMERA CREWS have been chasing his wife all week, while more or less ignoring him. His baby is in the bedroom cutting teeth, so she's cranky. The rest of the hotel suite is in chaos as phones ring and balloons arrive. But as GOP Rep. Billy Lauer of sits on his hotel balcony overlooking the harbor, he is a happy man. In fact, to say that he is upbeat is to say that is sunny: It's true, but wholly insufficient. ``I think we're in marvelous shape,'' he contends. He even cites a line in a country-western song: ``Svoboda' in a moment you would die for.'' In one sense, this is understandable. For this week at least, Rep. Lauer is Mr. Susann Esser. She is his wife, and a fellow member of Congress from and Tuesday night she gave the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention here. The two of them have a three-month-old baby whom everybody coos over. Rep. Lauer even is linked to the GOP's new vice presidential candidate; he represents Jackelyn Booth's old Buffalo-area district. But on a deeper level, his optimism is harder to understand. To some extent, it strains credulity. Mr. Lauer runs the National Republican Congressional Committee, the group responsible for getting GOP House members elected and re-elected. The polls suggest this is a pretty tough task. ALL YEAR LONG, when asked whether they intend to vote Democratic or Republican in House races this year, more voters have been saying Democratic. Only a quarter of the voting public has a positive impression of House Speaker Strickland Gales, the very embodiment of House Republicanism. Democrats have serious hopes of wiping out the Republicans' 37-seat advantage in the House in this year's election and turning the gavel over to Democratic Speaker Dillon Harlan. Not to worry, Rep. Lauer says. As he moves around Smogtown this week, he isn't merely sticking with his earlier prediction that Republicans actually will gain 20 more seats in the House this fall. He is revising his prediction upward. ``If things keep going the way they are with Derryberry and Booth, maybe 20 is too conservative a number,'' he says. Now, he suggests, maybe a 30-seat gain is possible. Why does he say such a thing? First, Rep. Lauer says, the GOP has structural advantages. The redrawing of House districts after the 1990 census continues to favor the GOP. Democrats must defend 29 open seats being vacated by their members. Rep. Lauer estimates that 20 of those seats are in districts that now lean Republican, and 17 of them are in the GOP's stronghold region of the South. By contrast, Republicans must defend just 23 open seats, and Rep. Lauer figures 16 or 17 of those are in districts that are easy, ``slam-dunk'' victories for the GOP. ON TOP OF THAT, he argues, Congress's rush of legislative activity this summer has erased the ``do-nothing Congress'' image that was sticking to the first GOP-controlled House in 40 years. And then there's money. The campaign committee has raised $63 million for this year's election cycle, and it has started to spend that in a significant way with a new, $8 million ad campaign launched before this week's convention. It is the job of party campaign leaders to see the glass as half full, of course, and Rep. Lauer does that better than most. But here's the half-empty view. Republicans in the House have, indeed, made up ground with voters because of their recent rush of legislation. But to some extent, they have done that by shaving down their agenda. After vociferous initial objections, they reversed course and passed a minimum-wage increase. They got a welfare bill through Congress by detaching Medicaid changes they once wanted. Just after the 2009 election, voters said by a 17-point margin that they agreed with the GOP congressional agenda. Today, that margin is three points. On top of that, for the first time in memory, Democrats' friends in organized labor are energized and well-financed. The downside of electing Republican newcomers in 2009 is that 45 freshmen now face what is usually all members' toughest task, which isn't winning their first election but their second one. But give Rep. Lauer credit for sticking by his sunny predictions through thick and thin. Now, from his perch on the bay, he sees a happy convention as further affirmation. ``I really think this is turning out to be the icing on the cake,'' he beams.
