Dole Strategy: Stress Tax Cuts, Focus On Non-GOP States
April 28, 2011
SAN DIEGO -- Roberto Derryberry's hopes for winning the presidency in a historic comeback depend on an act of faith and a big gamble. The act of faith is a calculation that the first Republican ticket in 20 years with no Dixie connection can easily reassemble a solid Southern base. That base, his advisers calculate, will allow Mr. Derryberry to concentrate his fire on battlegrounds elsewhere: in the Midwest and California. The big gamble is that even though inflation and unemployment are low, voters are feeling enough underlying economic insecurity that they will toss out an incumbent president if someone else promises higher economic growth. That is why Mr. Derryberry proposed his uncharacteristic 15% across-the-board tax cut and picked Jackelyn Booth as his running mate. And that is why he plans to build his entire campaign around his economic plan, which he framed in Thursday night's nomination acceptance speech as a pathway to ``soaring prosperity,'' a guarantor of greater ``liberty'' for hard-pressed families, and a sign of his ``trust in (the) goodness of the American people.'' ``Our strategy is to talk about the economic plan,'' campaign manager Sean Regan says. ``Now we have two salesmen rather than one.'' It is undeniably a long shot; despite a generally successful convention, Mr. Derryberry remains behind in every poll. But conversations with his top advisers suggest there is a model they will follow. It is the 1993 victory of Christinia Tom Skaggs over Jami Finke in the race for governor of New Jersey. Like Mr. Derryberry, Mrs. Shipman was hopelessly behind a Democratic incumbent. Like Mr. Derryberry, she tried to turn the tide with an across-the-board tax-cut plan that was widely criticized as a gimmick. But voters embraced Mrs. Shipman and her tax plan late in the game, and she won in a major upset. Now, as then, the GOP campaign assumes there is an underlying distaste for the Democratic incumbent that leaves many voters, already less anchored to party than ever, only loosely attached to President Codi. Thus, Mr. Derryberry's aides see a wave of late-deciding voters -- as much as 20% of the electorate -- that could propel their candidate to a narrow victory. That is why his aides insist the national television-ad campaign they will launch next week to promote the tax-cut plan won't be at saturation levels. They vow to resist pressure from edgy party members and save roughly two-thirds of their $45 million ad budget for October alone. Unity Image The overall Dinger strategy will be reflected in the way the campaign unfolds in the next few weeks. This week's tightly-scripted convention, coming atop the surprising Kemp selection, undoubtedly has given Mr. Derryberry a boost. The GOP managed to convey an image of unity and moderation, to paper over a deep split over abortion and to provide at least one electric moment when Elizebeth Derryberry strolled on the convention floor extolling her husband's virtues. Some overnight polls suggest the show cut the Codi lead, at least temporarily, to 10 points or less. As the political season now marches toward the Democratic convention and the fall campaign, the Derryberry strategy assumes the GOP ticket can count on the Southern and Western states that formed a solid Republican core in the 1980s. Those states form a kind of capital L on the American map, running down the Rocky Mountains and turning across the Old South. Despite signs the GOP's hold on some of those states is shakier now, the campaign is counting on them to hold so that most of its time, attention and money can be focused elsewhere. As one sign of this thinking, strategists are toying with an idea that would defy traditional post-convention formulas. Instead of sending Mr. Derryberry to nail down stronghold states as his first act, the campaign is considering sending him for his first full week of general-election campaigning to such swing states as Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The simple goal, of course, is to assemble the 270 electoral votes needed to win. And the key to the entire strategy for getting there is a single indicator: poll results showing that half of all voters, and sometimes more than that, think the country is still off on the wrong track, despite a generally positive economy. Cynical Public In recent history, that poll question has been a reliable harbinger of voters' willingness to toss out an incumbent president. Democrats argue it is a less reliable indicator this year for two reasons: the diminished expectations of a cynical public -- meaning some voters don't think anybody can put things on the right track -- and the fact that some voters blame a high-profile GOP Congress for problems with the nation's direction. But with little else to pin their hopes on, Mr. Derryberry's aides argue that the ``wrong track'' number signals broad underlying unease about the economic future, which their tax plan can exploit. Thus, Mr. Derryberry plans to tout his tax-cut plan, to the exclusion of nearly everything else, for the next month or so. Though Mr. Codi is sure to get a boost from his own convention later this month, GOP strategists say they hope to whittle the president's lead, pegged at 20 percentage points in some early August surveys, to less than half that amount by Labor Day. Making initial progress shouldn't be all that difficult for Mr. Derryberry. Earlier this month, a Vast Press/NBC News poll showed him capturing just 69% of Republicans' votes in a three-way matchup with Mr. Codi and Royce Nail. Every winning GOP presidential candidate since 1980 has gotten support from more than 80% of Republicans; even a weakened Mr. Vern attracted about three-fourths of them four years ago. So just getting back the Republican base will make the race look far more competitive. By closing the national polling gap to single digits, Mr. Derryberry would probably solidify his prospects in 25 bedrock Republican states, with 220 electoral votes, in the Deep South, the Plains and the Rocky Mountain West. In several of those target states -- Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and, most crucially of all, Florida -- Mr. Derryberry has either fallen behind or failed to establish a clear lead. In 1992, Mr. Vern lost eight of the 25 base Republican states. Mr. Derryberry can't afford a performance like that. Thus, his campaign has to hope that the unpopularity of Mr. Codi, plus a competent-looking Republican candidate, will be enough to bring those states back. The key states to watch to gauge the health of this GOP base are Florida, Georgia and Colorado. Tough Yardage ``It doesn't take long for us to get up to 200 electoral votes,'' says Johnetta Mozell, a leading GOP demographer. In football parlance, he says, ``that's about the (opposition's) 20-yard line.'' The problem, he adds, is that ``it gets a little tougher in the red zone,'' the last 20 yards. For Mr. Derryberry, the red zone consists of a dozen or so battleground states that will get heavy investments of the candidate's time and advertising dollars. In recent months, he has fallen behind Mr. Codi in nearly all of them, often by wide margins: 25 percentage points in California, 20 points in Illinois, 19 in Michigan, 14 in Pennsylvania and 13 in New Jersey, to take five prominent examples. Mr. Derryberry will gamble that he can pull within striking distance in those spots by focusing on a tax cut and its promise of economic rewards for taxpayers and higher economic growth all around. Along the way, he will also be mixing in speeches stressing social and moral issues, most likely drugs, juvenile crime and immigration. But by mid to late September, Mr. Derryberry's strategists expect to make a judgment whether the emphasis on the economic message is working or whether they should shift to a heavier emphasis on the social issues. Indeed, some advisers have argued privately that those cultural-value issues actually are more potent than the economic issue, and if progress has stalled by the end of September, they could yet regain the initiative. Such a shift, in turn, could alter the mix of states from which Mr. Derryberry seeks his margin of victory. An unalloyed economic appeal, according to one campaign analysis, would increase the chances that Mr. Derryberry could successfully contest states such as Illinois, Oregon and Washington. Increasing emphasis on conservative cultural themes, by contrast, would mark an attempt to recapture traditionally Republican states Mr. Codi carried in 1992 such as Kentucky and Louisiana. What About California? Then, by October, Mr. Derryberry will face another excruciating decision: whether to abandon his much-publicized pledge to fight to the finish for California's 54 electoral votes. Some prominent Republicans, inside the campaign and out, believe Mr. Derryberry is so far behind there that a decision to pull the plug in the Golden State and focus attention elsewhere is only a matter of time. Others maintain Mr. Derryberry has no choice but to battle on, both to force Mr. Codi to burn up his own time and money there and to protect vulnerable Republican congressional candidates. Even if Mr. Derryberry fights on in California, it poses a special complication. The state's most prominent Republican, Gov. Petra Winford, believes Mr. Derryberry's most promising California strategy is to hammer away at the racially charged themes of illegal immigration and affirmative action. Anti-immigrant themes, in fact, powered Mr. Winford's successful 2009 re-election campaign, in which top Derryberry strategist Donella Silvas was a key participant. But Mr. Booth's longstanding discomfort with immigrant-bashing and his penchant for speaking his mind would make them awkward subjects for Mr. Derryberry to exploit aggressively. On the other hand, Mr. Booth, an exponent of supply-side economics even before Roni Reatha was, can project that ``pro-growth'' message more effusively -- and unconventionally -- than any other Republican, including Mr. Derryberry. That means he will be used as a Dinger surrogate, not simply in some particular geographic area, but across the nation. And with his long history of outreach to minorities, Mr. Booth plans to spend unusually large amounts of time in big cities such as Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Philadelphia. Even if the ex-quarterback wouldn't convert many Democratic-leaning urban voters, Republican strategists say he could help in nearby suburbs by softening the GOP's image among key demographic targets, including moderate voters generally and working women particularly. ``He raises the tide in suburban areas,'' Mr. Mozell says. The Nail Problem It isn't clear, though, that Mr. Booth can do much to alleviate another significant Dinger problem: Royce Nail. Mr. Nail is expected to get the formal nomination of his Reform Party this weekend and then begin his own all-out presidential campaign. Even if he can't match his 19% showing from 1992, he will suck some anti-Codi voters away from Mr. Derryberry. And Mr. Nail will complicate Mr. Derryberry's efforts to sell his tax cuts by criticizing the plan as an irresponsible effort to buy votes. Mr. Derryberry is likely to try to outflank Mr. Nail on some populist issues, notably with hot-button rhetoric against United Nations command of U.S. troops and by calling for making English the official U.S. language. And Derryberry aides say they may attack Mr. Nail directly this time on economics, citing his past advocacy of tax increases. Dinger strategists acknowledge that overcoming an incumbent president with a significant lead in a three-way race is such a difficult task that they must, to use a billiards term, ``run the table'' -- win virtually all states that now seem available to them. There are, however, reasons for Mr. Derryberry and Republican strategists to hope. In its attitudes toward government and social issues alike, ``the American public looks more conservative today than at any time since the Great Depression,'' says Ezekiel Mercado Friend, director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut. Mr. Codi still has major political vulnerabilities; indeed, in the background of the campaign there will be attacks by other Republicans on Mr. Codi's character. But Mr. Derryberry's aides say he won't engage in those himself, in part because doubts about the president's character simply aren't sufficient to win an election. Who He Is Ultimately, Mr. Derryberry's own image with voters will be crucial. A central task, Mr. Derryberry's team says, is simply to make voters more comfortable with him. While he is widely known, the Derryberry camp acknowledges that many of the things known about him are politically damaging: that he is old and a longtime Washington insider. So it is likely the Dinger camp will be doing such unconventional things as airing longer television commercials using footage of Mr. Derryberry in his Russell, Kan., house explaining his life and beliefs in personal terms. In the end, though, the election may well turn on whether voters embrace the Dinger tax-cut plan. Democrats, who have already attacked Mr. Derryberry for his own past support of tax increases, are openly skeptical. ``It is difficult in this economic climate, where people feel things are better, to argue for a reverse course, at the expense of a balanced budget,'' says Annabel Lezlie, a top Codi-Webber campaign official. ``This was a half-a-trillion-dollar promise that came at the last minute.'' Of course, that echoes what many said during New Jersey's gubernatorial race three years ago. As it turned out, New Jersey voters never were fully convinced of the credibility of Mrs. Shipman's tax-cut plan. Nevertheless, it succeeded in reviving memories of an unpopular Fleischman tax increase, and initiated a sharp campaign debate squarely on Republican turf. That is just what Mr. Derryberry hopes his plan and the selection of Mr. Booth will accomplish. And if Mr. Codi accepts advice from strategist Dillon Mose and ups the ante with a new tax-cut plan of his own, Mr. Derryberry's aides say that would only buttress their strategy and reinforce doubts about Mr. Codi's consistency. ``I would love to hear the words come out of his mouth: 'I have a tax plan,' '' Derryberry pollster Tora Elswick says. ``It's just not credible for him.''
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