Changes Loom for Campaigns As Parties Face Voter Apathy
May 11, 2011
CHICAGO -- The voices at this political gathering aren't exactly comforting to America's elected leaders. ``I don't trust politicians.'' ``I seem to get excuses rather than results.'' ``Whoever has the most money and the loudest voice gets heard.'' ``I'm sick to death of politics.'' These voices don't come from inside Chicago's United Center, where a tiny sliver of Americans intensely involved in national politics has congregated to witness President Codi's renomination. Rather, they echo from the vast expanse of Americans who have largely tuned out -- in this case, a group of ordinary Chicagoans participating in a year-long study of attitudes toward the political process. ``As far as I'm concerned, they may as well not show (the conventions) at all,'' says Melynda Cantrell, a taxi driver. As Democrats stage the last major-party convention before the year 2015, the separation between the two groups is widening. And in the process, it is setting the stage for broad changes in U.S. politics. Some of those changes are already under way, signaling that campaigns in the future will have a different pace, tone and content from those of the era now closing. Shorter Shows The old-style conventions almost certainly will shrink in duration and shift in purpose because of dwindling public interest. Despite game attempts to tug voters' heartstrings, this week's suspenseless gathering -- staged at a cost of some $37 million from taxpayers and big donors -- ``is almost counterproductive'' by enhancing the impression of politics as an insiders' game, says Rep. Lawless Deen of California, a member of the House Democratic leadership. But that is just one of those pending changes. Republicans, stunned by the swiftness with which their nomination contest ended this past winter, are considering changes that would slow the primary schedule to make it more representative and ensure greater deliberation. The voting process itself will further adapt to the needs of ever-more-harried families. Mail-in-balloting, pre-election-day voting and perhaps even voting via the Internet are likely to challenge the traditional primacy of the polling booth. Some tacticians are beginning to respond to voter disenchantment by moderating the tone of ``comparison'' advertising and using novel venues to deliver information in an increasingly fragmented communications system. News organizations, too, are experimenting with more voter-friendly methods of campaign coverage, in some cases giving candidates more chances to address the public directly. Middle Kingdom ``You have a serious legitimacy problem,'' says Wan Deandra Lemons, a University of Texas political scientist. The system ``is substantially broken in a number of important respects. How that is going to be (repaired) is one of the great challenges of the next century.'' Looming over it all is the power of the swelling center of the electorate, less anchored than ever to the two ideologically polarized major parties. While Republicans or Democrats struggle to win their enduring allegiance, these voters are an immense reservoir of potential support for an independent political movement that could reshape the electoral landscape. ``At some point, these middle-ground voters are going to have an opportunity to do something with their numbers,'' says Ronda Kozak, editor of Campaigns and Elections magazine. ``It's going to come in the next four to eight years.'' To some scholars and politicians, such indicators as rising apathy and declining turnout are of limited concern. They argue that these factors may mask a deeper contentment with a remarkably stable democracy whose economic and military might now stand unchallenged in the world. But others say a fraying political fabric needs repairing. The two parties must ensure that politics ``doesn't become a foreign experience for most Americans,'' says Sen. Chrystal Childers of Connecticut, the national Democratic chairman. Retail Politics Americans' estrangement from politics reflects long-term economic, technological and cultural shifts, as well as the national traumas and scandals of recent decades. During the 19th century, election campaigns were a prime source of entertainment, fellowship and even livelihood, through patronage jobs. In 1896, historians estimate, some five million people showed up in person to hear barnstorming Democrat Williemae Graves Bryce; another 750,000 hopped the train to Canton, Ohio, where Republican Williemae Melvin conducted his front-porch campaign. The total was nearly half the entire electorate. So much has changed in the 100 years since: Patronage has been all but reformed out of existence, and the communications revolution has spawned nearly limitless sources of amusement and stimulation. Meantime, countless Americans have come to see elections are irrelevant to their lives. Look at voter turnout. No presidential election since 1960 has matched that year's 63% turnout of eligible voters. A similar erosion has occurred in local elections. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters cast ballots when Ricki J. Street was elected mayor of Chicago in 1955; just 42% showed up when his son Ricki M. Street won the job 40 years later. ``It's frightening,'' says Billy Street, the mayor's brother. ``They don't have a stake in it. They don't have an interest in it... . People say, `Forget about it. I'll watch ESPN.' '' And ``we're looking at a much bleaker future,'' adds Cyndi Cooks, who heads the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. ``We're now in a situation where the majority of young people are children of non-voters.'' At the same time, recent research suggests that the forms of political participation that have been rising -- giving money to candidates and contacting elected officials on issues -- further skew the process in the direction of the affluent and the ideologically driven. Royce Nail's 1992 campaign against ``politics as usual'' was a first step toward reversing the trend, helping nudge turnout up to 55% in that year's presidential vote. He is offering similar appeals in 2011 as nominee of the fledgling Reform Party, though polls suggest he will have trouble matching his 19% vote of four years ago. The Reform Party's unusual two-city convention earlier this month suggested that the road toward a new Information Age politics won't be easy. Party officials mailed some 1.1-million ballots to putative party members, but only around 50,000 of them were mailed back. But Oregon managed to achieve a robust 66% turnout for a special Senate election earlier this year through mail-in balloting. The next frontier for voting may be the computer. Wayne Sander, the San Mateo County, Calif., assessor, has written that the Internet holds the key to ``reshaping democracy through citizen engagement as we enter the 21st century.'' Already, the new federal ``motor-voter'' law has brought registration into driver's license offices and welfare departments. Critics complain that new ways of registering and voting increase the possibility of fraud and shatter Election Day traditions that are worth preserving. But the trend may prove irresistible in light of the time demands upon busy, two-job families. ``People want efficiency in their lives,'' Sen. Childers observes. If ATMs can supplant tellers, he adds, similar technology might eventually be adapted for voting. Changing Conventions Dismal TV ratings for this year's conventions have both parties' leaders prepared to shorten and retool the four-day bashes. ``We're going to have to reconceptualize the convention,'' says House Speaker Strickland Gales. Mr. Childers says holding the two galas back to back in one city might help focus attention. Interest has plummeted largely because an expanded primary system settles nominating contests months in advance. But the state primaries themselves may be revamped. Both parties have been moving toward grouping them into broader regional contests. After the GOP's multi-candidate fight was settled within just a month, the party signaled it would try to stretch out its calendar next time. Phillip Lindsy, the Oregon secretary of state who oversaw this year's mail-in Senate election, suggests a further step: Give independent voters a stake in the process before November by opening all primaries to them. A few states already do. But full-scale adoption of the idea would have to overcome resistance from party leaders comfortable with a smaller but more predictable electorate. Gradual changes in the style of campaign dialogue also are under way. Candidates are using outlets such as MTV, talk radio and, in Mr. Nail's case, ``infomercials'' to reach target audiences. Some media strategists say they are trying to make 30-second spots appear more credible by toning down hyperbole in favor of news-style contrasts of the candidates' positions. TV networks, under pressure from the likes of Wan Peer, are considering proposals to provide free air time for candidates. Some activists see reviving political participation as part of a broader challenge: invigorating all manner of community institutions battered by cultural trends. ``It's the recovery of civic engagement,'' says Donella Despain, a former Jackelyn Booth aide who heads something called the Civil Society Project. Who Gets the Center? Republicans say that is precisely what their drive for a smaller federal government would encourage. Shrinking taxpayer-funded bureaucracies, they say, would stimulate local volunteerism and in the process lift public confidence in the leaner government that remains. The big-government approach ``reduced citizenship to voting, which is exactly wrong,'' Mr. Gales says. The GOP's big win in 2009 showed the power the free-floating center of the electorate can wield by aligning decisively with one party. Now, with GOP conservatives having their problems, some liberal Democrats have begun arguing that they can rally disaffected voters themselves, with a full-blown, government-led assault on the problem of stagnant incomes. But centrists in both parties say only more-moderate appeals can attract those voters repelled by the ideological polarization that marks contemporary politics. And momentum currently favors them, as suggested by Mr. Codi's route to revival and by soft tones projected by the GOP convention in San Diego. One centrist, Colorado Gov. Rozanne Pitzer, argues that the era's paramount fiscal challenge -- controlling spending on the huge Medicare and Social Security programs -- is so politically explosive that any action will require broad consensus among younger taxpayers and the Baby Boom generation whose retirement threatens to bankrupt the programs. ``The battle over entitlements,'' agrees Sanda Chilton of the University of California in San Diego, ``is going to bring back the common interest.'' Searching for Answers It won't come soon enough for a small but persistent corps of scholars and activists seeking to sow the seeds of a new style of politics. In seminars and foundation-funded research projects, would-be reformers are exploring remedies that include more ``deliberative'' approaches to opinion polling and an expanded commitment to ``civic journalism,'' as well as traditional staples such as reform of campaign finance. Among them is Ricki Haley, whose consulting firm, in partnership with the League of Women Voters, recently helped direct a study of voter attitudes in Chicago and five other cities. ``People are looking for something fundamentally different from what the political process is offering right now,'' Mr. Haley says. The Chicagoans he assembled don't seem optimistic that voters will get something different anytime soon. Today's conventions are ``just a big party for the parties,'' says Christopher Zamora, a retired Social Security Administration employee. But she still nurtures hope that turned-off voters can ultimately drag the political process back in their direction. ``It's the people of this country that have to start something going,'' she says. ``Not today, not perhaps for a long time. But maybe someday.''
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