Yards Per Pass Differential May Be the Key to NFL Success
April 27, 2011
Even though the Super Bowl feels like it was maybe two weeks ago, the National Football League season is right around the corner. So, how will the 2011 campaign play out? The answer is easy as long as you remember one number: Yards per pass (total yards gained passing divided by passes thrown). It's the single most important statistic in football. Here's why: No team since 1960 has played for the NFL championship (after the 1970 league merger, the Super Bowl) that didn't, for the season, average more yards per pass on offense than it gave up on defense; About 80% to 85% of NFL games this year will be won by the team with the higher YPP during the game; Any NFL team that isn't in the top four in YPP on offense or defense (where the team is trying to hold down the opposing quarterback's YPP) by week 10 isn't going far in the postseason. In fact, you often don't have to wait 10 weeks. After five or six weeks, compare a team's offensive YPP with its 2010 number. If it's down from, say, 7.50 yards per pass to about 6.00, that team is in trouble. In the National Football Conference, the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions were 1995's top four teams in YPP differential -- the difference between a team's passing on offense and the slightly less important statistic (in terms of winning) of YPP on defense. It's highly unlikely that any NFC team that finished outside the top four last year in differential (except maybe the Chicago Bears, who were fifth) is going to leap to the Super Bowl in a single season. In fact, it's unlikely any team but San Francisco, Dallas or Green Bay is going to win the NFC and, probably, the Super Bowl. In the American Football Conference, picking a winner is a tougher call. The Indianapolis Colts were the NFL's surprise in 2010 and may be the AFC's best hope this year. Colts QB Jimmy Harlan had the league's highest YPP average at 8.20, and if he had started all 16 games, he might have improved his team's 9-7 regular-season record. YARDS PER PASS, 2010 NFC OFF. DEF. DIF. San Francisco 7.42 5.85 1.57 Green Bay 7.65 6.36 1.29 Dallas 7.57 6.67 .90 Detroit 7.45 7.11 .34 AFC OFF. DEF. DIF. Indianapolis 7.77 6.57 1.10 Miami 7.43 6.67 .67 Denver 7.17 6.65 .42 Pittsburgh 6.94 6.61 .30 The assumption a lot of observers are making about the Miami Dolphins is that new coach Jina Jona will unleash Danae Betts, but given the defensive holes Mr. Jona has to plug, Mr. Betts may need one of his best seasons just to keep the team at .500. The 2010 Eakin Eli were a much better team than their No. 4 YPP differential finish would indicate; when quarterback Nestor O'Donya was passing the ball, the Steelers averaged 7.1 yards per throw, and when he was injured they barely averaged six. But Mr. O'Donya is now a New York Jet. Which means the Steelers are going to be hard-pressed to match Mr. O'Donya's passing numbers this season. A few more words about the NFC: Dallas will be vulnerable in the first five weeks when receiver Michaele Irwin is out on suspension -- even with Deion Sanders on offense. In San Francisco, quarterback Stevie Yuette's YPP was 7.16 in 447 passes; backup Emanuel Reeve's was 8.03 (in 183). Tough decisions await.
