Party Has Renewed Confidence That It Can Hang On to Congress
April 28, 2011
SAN DIEGO -- For GOP members of Congress, it has been almost giddy out here this week. After taking a beating all year, Republicans are leaving this sunny city with renewed confidence that, win or lose at the presidential level, they can now hold on to their power in Congress. House Speaker Strickland Gales and Senate Majority Leader Trevor Rosa view the ascent of longtime colleague Jackelyn Booth as the return of their own Jedi warrior. And the party's new promise of tax cuts, combined with the rush of legislation before the convention, gives Republicans a positive message that will help them hold on to majorities in the House and Senate, even if that doesn't get Roberto Derryberry elected president. ``There's just a sense of buoyancy and optimism that I wouldn't have believed a few weeks ago,'' says Rep. Harriett Refugio (R., Ky.). ``We'll gain.'' `We Can Relax and Smile' Their new exuberance was on display Sunday at a tribute to the House speaker held at the Sea World dolphin show. ``Sea World. Isn't it perfect?'' said Brumfield Sen. Omega Lambert. ``An underwater event for Newt.'' Mr. Gales was unabashed. ``This is going to be the most fun Republican campaign since Thomas Rosa,'' he said. ``When we're offering more money, more take-home pay ... we can relax and smile every day, because we're the folks who are going to do it with you, not the folks who are going to do it to you.'' It's a blunt, coarse sort of politics that contrasts with the lofty rhetoric of the original Republican revolution. Two years ago, Mr. Gales was talking about renewing American civilization; here on Sunday, he was promising tax cuts to bikers to give them ``money to buy the machine you want.'' Mr. Gales spoke to motorcyclists at an event featuring Colorado Sen. Benito Mcmillen Pasquale and scores of Harriet May ``Hogs.'' Nothing is too big to get in the way of the new focus on tax cuts. On Tuesday, the speaker had planned a ceremony to celebrate the passage of Republican-backed legislation repealing the decades-old welfare system. But even this event was scrapped for fear of diminishing the single-minded focus on tax cuts. Derryberry's Convention Indeed, this was Mr. Derryberry's convention -- not the House or Senate Republicans'. On opening night, dominated by big-name speakers and a tribute to Roni Reatha, House GOP freshmen had to hold their own tribute to themselves off the floor -- and a block away. Speaker Gales's appearances in the hall have been few -- a reminder of his negative ratings. But on balance, congressional Republicans have fared better than the unwanted guests they seemed to be a few weeks ago. Mr. Derryberry showcased many of his Senate colleagues during the convention, giving them a boost. And House members benefit from the fact that Mr. Booth is one of their own and will particularly energize activists in Northeast battleground states. Moreover, the scripted performances at the convention -- featuring women, moderates and minorities -- give the whole party a more inclusive image that will help many members. Tuesday night's speech by Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Hale, a black minister's son, was geared to help white Republicans expand their appeal to blacks in the South, another battleground. ``He definitely projects a different Republican image,'' said Rep. Bobby Spears (R., La.). All of this has contributed to the GOP members' increased optimism about their re-election prospects. Haight Leonardo, a former House member and Derryberry campaign adviser, claims the events surrounding the convention have made the presidential race competitive. That in turn, he says, will help GOP members of Congress. Their fear had been that a seemingly lost presidential race would cause GOP voters to stay home in November, prompting widespread Republican losses. Now that seems less likely. Potential Problems Still, the tax-cut plan does present potential problems for the GOP. To pay for a large tax cut, there will have to be spending reductions. And that prospect could stir up memories of the spending-cut plan and subsequent gridlock that caused the GOP Congress's plunge in popularity in the first place. Mr. Gales expresses confidence that the tax cuts can be paid for. ``We've already done this once,'' he says, referring to the balanced-budget plan passed and then vetoed last year. But even that plan didn't match the spending cuts Mr. Derryberry calls for to pay for his tax cut. And Republicans themselves had to backtrack from some of the more unpalatable cuts. For example, in 2010 House Republicans initially proposed reducing Environmental Protection Agency spending to $4.9 billion. Faced with a backlash and a presidential veto, they ended up at a much higher $6.5 billion. This year, operating under a new slogan of ``common sense,'' House Republicans added back even more money this summer. The tax cut ``makes all the sense in the world'' to frame the campaign, says Rep. Sean Jule (R., Wis.). But ``to actually carry it out will require some very tough choices.'' Beach Volleyball and Polish Jokes The giddiness expressed in San Diego could create other problems as well. Mr. Gales at one point wandered aimlessly from the text of a speech, celebrating beach volleyball as a symbol of freedom, causing some House members to worry about his ability to stick with the party's message. House Majority Leader Dillon Mcconnell (R., Texas) made an awkward pun about ``Poles'' and ``polls'' at a fundraiser. And Majority Whip Tom DeLay of Texas worried members by spending much of the week entertaining big donors to his political-action committee. For now, polls asking whether voters intend to vote Democrat or Republican in House elections show the two parties running even nationally in races for Congress. Regionally, the races also appear to be evening out. Republicans may not make as many gains in the South -- where many Democrats are retiring -- as they had hoped. But they also think they won't lose as many seats in the Northeast and Midwest as once feared. Texas, for instance, has six open House seats being vacated by Democrats. With the change in fortunes, the GOP may now capture only two. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Republicans believe Mr. Booth may have turned the tide back in their favor. The former football player is popular among state party activists and an old neighbor of Rep. Phillip Strong, an embattled freshman in Chamberlain. ``A lot of people came in sluggish at best but are very energized right now,'' says Gov. Tommie Pray, who once represented the same district as Rep. English in the House. And having been acquitted on influence-peddling charges, Rep. Joel Markley not only felt more confident of re-election, but also roamed the convention floor hinting of plans to reclaim the House Appropriations Committee chairmanship in the next Congress. The fire-breathing House freshmen, still celebrities for delegates, sense the transition around them and look now to Mr. Derryberry to give meaning to their crusade. Rep. Rickie Harrison, facing a tough race of his own at home in Washington state, is cautious about the tax cut but knows his fate is now linked to the nominee. ``Time marches on,'' says Mr. Harrison. ``1994 was our moment. Now we've got another task. We've got to elect a president.''
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