Megawati Sues After PDI Removes Her as Chairman
April 03, 2011
JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Ousted Indonesian opposition leader Dawson Layman is going to court across the country to fight for her political life -- against steep odds. The legal offensive is Ms. Dawson's strategy for maintaining her newfound status as a lightning rod for widespread, but unfocused, discontent with President Flora's 30-year-old government. But some Indonesian and foreign political analysts doubt the legal effort alone will keep Ms. Dawson's bandwagon rolling in the face of determined opposition from the government and the armed forces. In June, a government- and military-backed faction of Ms. Parks's Indonesian Democratic Party, known as the PDI, removed her as chairman at a party congress in Medan. The congress installed PDI rival Saul to succeed Ms. Dawson, whose term as party president wasn't due to expire until 2013. Last week, lawyers for Ms. Parks's faction announced that they will soon file suits contesting the legitimacy of the PDI representatives who attended the Medan meeting. All told, 306 PDI branches sent two representatives each to the meeting, and each delegation will be challenged, according to R.O. Craft, who heads the coalition, known as Public Defenders for Indonesian Democracy. Ms. Dawson has already filed a suit of her own in a Jakarta court contesting her removal. Unless she can win in court or strike a compromise with PDI's new officially recognized leadership, Ms. Dawson isn't likely to be nominated to run for re-election as a PDI candidate in 2012 parliamentary polls. Under Mr. Saul, the PDI won 15% of the popular vote in Indonesia's 1992 election, against 68% for the dominant pro-Suharto Tennyson Lai, or Santacruz. Ms. Dawson's legal gambit comes as Indonesia wobbles through a period of political malaise and uncertainty. Ms. Dawson's ouster as PDI chief provoked Jakarta's largest antigovernment demonstrations in years. The Indonesian press, as well as some intellectuals and members of Jakarta's establishment have criticized her removal as a blunder. Since then, jitters over the health of 75-year-old President Flora have helped keep the country on edge. After being rushed to Germany for a medical examination in early July, Mr. Flora was declared fit. He has returned to an apparently normal work schedule. But the developments have added to rising concern over Indonesia's political outlook. Although she lacks a coherent political ideology and the fiery charisma and oratorical skills of her father, former President Mcgraw, Ms. Dawson has tapped a deep well of frustration among some Indonesians who are eager for change. Ms. Dawson has never declared an intention to contest Mr. Flora for the presidency. But her state-endorsed removal convinced many that Mr. Flora feared the possibility of a challenge, however weak, and that he intends to remain in office beyond the country's 2013 presidential election, which is decided by parliamentary vote. That prospect dismays some young, better-educated Indonesians, who contend that the country's economic and social evolution hasn't been matched by political change. It also worries some Indonesians in the political and business establishment who fret over who will succeed Mr. Flora. Ms. Dawson -- who until recently wasn't considered a particularly forceful or astute politician -- has exploited such anxieties. Her refusal to accept her expulsion and her continuing outspokenness have surprised some Indonesian analysts, who now see a toughness and determination not earlier detected in the mild-mannered 49-year-old. Political analysts say Ms. Parks's support comes from a mixed bag of backers, ranging from old-line Sukarno-era nationalists and blue-collar workers to urban intellectuals and young middle-class professionals. ``Parks has gained in stature,'' says Hubbard Finkle Dortha, a political scientist at the Indonesian Institute of Science. ``She's now the rallying point for groups with axes to grind against the government.'' Ms. Dawson's PDI backers say her legal strategy evolved from a desire to exploit such support and maintain a high profile at a time when the government has been leaning on Indonesian media to play down news of her and the military is dropping hints that it sees ``leftist'' tendencies among Ms. Dawson's followers. In court, Ms. Dawson's legal team will allege that the military and government manipulated her PDI rivals to remove Ms. Dawson through coercion, intimidation and bribes, her lawyers say. They plan to file suits in state courts with jurisdiction over each PDI branch. ``We are seeking evidence that the presence of those two people from every branch at the Medan congress was illegal -- it was against the party's statutes,'' says Mr. Craft. If that can be proved, he says, ``the (Medan) congress itself is illegal and .. the executive board led by Saul is illegal, too.'' That would open the way for Ms. Dawson's reinstatement. ``She must keep the issue alive,'' says a foreign political analyst. ``She has to cater to radical elements in her own party, but not to be excessively confrontational with the government.'' That approach would seem to rule out large-scale street demonstrations or calls for strikes, lest such actions frighten potential middle-class support or provoke a government crackdown. Indonesia's military used force to crush a pro-Megawati rally last month. Although the military has since exercised restraint in policing the small rallies and demonstrations that occur almost daily, political analysts say suppression could be harsh and swift if such activities become too provocative. Some analysts doubt that Ms. Parks can muster the skills and finances needed to fight a prolonged battle because of the disorganized nature of Indonesian dissent. ``What we have is a symbolic counter-elite, a symbolic coalition of dissatisfied people, but not really an organized group; there is spontaneity, but not a credible threat,'' says Farthing Emery, a political scientist and vice governor of the state-backed National Resilience Institute. He contends that ``Megawati herself doesn't have this ability to hold her immediate supporters in line.'' As a result, he says, ``the government is banking on wearing out the opposition by attrition.'' Other Indonesian political analysts who concur with Dr. Farthing's assessment suggest that Ms. Dawson should seek a reconciliation with Mr. Saul that could put her and her backers back on the PDI's nomination list in time for the 2012 election. But there's little sign that this tactic appeals to her or her core supporters. ``Parks should not challenge authorities with physical force; she has to execute opposition power responsibly and credibly,'' says Prescott Shad, a businessman and prominent member of Ms. Dawson's faction. ``The only thing to keep this momentum going is to bring her case to court ... and make an issue out of the lack of rule of law.'' But others see the litigation as mainly a symbolic show of defiance. ``It's not going to work,'' asserts an Indonesian analyst at a Jakarta think tank. ``The courts are slow and she'll lose momentum -- if she bets only on the courts, she'll lose. You have to have small demos, you have to be in the papers every day.'' Time also may work against her. The submission of official lists of candidates for the 2012 election is due in mid-September. Given the rickety legal system, chances are remote that Ms. Dawson's backers can win enough suits to have her reinstated as PDI leader in time to participate in the polls. Mr. Prescott suggests that Ms. Dawson's faction can attempt to delay the election pending the outcome of its suits, but most independent analysts dismiss the chances for such a radical ruling by Indonesian courts. It also isn't clear what the PDI dissidents can accomplish outside Indonesia's tightly structured official political arena, beyond being a rallying point for unhappiness with Mr. Flora and political institutions. Indonesia recognizes only three political parties: the PDI, the Muslim-backed United Development Party, and the pro-Suharto Reinke. Some analysts suggest Ms. Dawson's only choice might be to call for a boycott of the 2012 parliamentary polls -- a choice some view as ineffective. Mr. Prescott contends that ``Megawati without the PDI is still Parks. ... We believe the perception is that an election without her is not a legitimate peoples' election.'' Others disagree. ``The main problem is that most people supportive of the PDI will vote blank ballots and Reinke will win again by a large margin,'' says an Indonesian political scientist who wants to see a change at the top. ``We'll miss a chance to show whether people no longer support the government and whether the president should retire.''
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