Jérôme Cukier

VAST 2011 Challenge 
Mini-Challenge 3 - Investigation into Terrorist Activity

Authors and Affiliations:

Jérôme Cukier, OECD

Tool(s):

I used Python to clean and prepare the dataset, and Protovis (M. Bostock, J. Herr, V. Ogievetsky, Stanford University) to develop the interactive tool that visualizes the data. 

The tool can be downloaded at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5259106/mc3.zip

Video:

 http://youtu.be/CMPZJLms9tU?hd=1 

ANSWERS:


MC 3.1 Potential Threats: Identify any imminent terrorist threats in the Vastopolis metropolitan area. Provide detailed information on the threat or threats (e.g. who, what, where, when, and how) so that officials can conduct counterintelligence activities. Also, provide a list of the evidential documents supporting your answer.

The answer

The most dangerous threat Vastopolis faces is a biological attack, for 2 reasons.

1.     Vastopolis is not equipped to respond to such a situation. City officials declined to comment on emergency plans. (4080)

2.     Some dangerous groups appear to be able to strike.

a.     The Center for Ethical Treatment of Laboratory Mice is suspected to have stolen the lab equipment of bioterrorism expert Edward Patino, which can be used to manufacture deadly microbes (3212, 1785).
A possible target for the CETLM could be Ariad Pharmaceuticals, who experiments on mice (1936)

b.    Food supply seems especially vulnerable to bioterrorism (3040). On May 15th, a member of the paramurders of chaos has been arrested near a food processing plant (1878).

Another menace comes from smaller terrorist groups (4080), especially if they gain access to dangerous equipment.

1.     The network of hate managed to steal weapons, including 20 rifles and 3 surface-to-air missiles (2287). The missiles have been recovered by a stroke of luck (2395) but could have been used otherwise. No details on the rifles though.

2.     Weapon experts believe building a dirty bomb is within the technical capacity of terrorist groups (3231) provided they get radioactive material.

There are other suspect groups or individuals which may not pose an immediate threat but which should be watched nonetheless.

1.     The F-alliance, who managed to steal library computers (926) on April 10th. The computers were found about a week later (3630) but what have they done with it?

2.     Joi Beers / Johnny “the virus” (2157, 3393) is a hacker which deals punitive justice how he sees fit. He has been rather harmless until now.

3.     Forever Brotherhood of Antarctica (1482), intents unclear, did kidnap the mayor’s dog.

4.     Order of the Plague is reported as a small, capable and dangerous group (4080) although there are no other mentions in the corpus.

Many articles discuss air security, following a string of aircrashes, notably that of Antarctica Airlines (which may or may not be criminal). Attention and resources are being devoted to screening passengers (790), while it’s relatively easy to smuggle weapons or explosives through supposedly off-limit areas (1691). Security standards also differ across companies (947).

A global, cost-efficient strategy should be implemented for the airport.


 

The process

All articles have been scored according to keywords they could contain. Those keywords fall into 2 categories:

·         Specificity: those are words related to Vastopolis and other proper names of the exercise (i.e. “Vast River”, “Interstate 610”,…)

·         Threat: words describing a possible danger.

The score is then divided by the number of words of the article for more accurate comparisons.
Thus, it is possible to represent all articles on a scatterplot.

I’ve built an interactive tool around that system, allowing the user to select a portion of the scatterplot to narrow the selection, but also to filter the corpus by the use of additional keywords. It is also possible to read the articles by clicking on them, and to see the scoring words highlighted, which help decide quickly if an article is relevant or not.